20160728-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb
报告摘要
FX Insights Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market for July 28, 2016, focusing on the performance and outlook of various currency pairs against the Singapore Dollar (SGD). The analysis is based on recent market movements, key support and resistance levels, and upcoming economic data releases. The main themes include neutral and bearish trends for the USD, with some pairs showing bullish potential, and a range-bound outlook for most currencies.
Key Currency Pairs and Outlooks
USD/SGD: 1.3510
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.3470/1.3610
- Support Levels: S1: 1.3470, S2: 1.3410
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.3580, R2: 1.3610
- Analysis: The USD/SGD pair is currently in a neutral range. A clear break below 1.3470 would signal a move lower towards 1.3410, but the pair is expected to find support at this level. A move above 1.3580 could indicate a reversal in the current downward trend.
EUR/SGD: 1.4940
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.4880/1.5000
- Support Levels: S1: 1.4880, S2: 1.4820
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.5000, R2: 1.5060
- Analysis: EUR/SGD is expected to trade within a narrow range. A breakout above 1.5000 could lead to a recovery towards 1.5060, but for now, the outlook remains neutral.
GBP/SGD: 1.7860
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.7650/1.8010
- Support Levels: S1: 1.7740, S2: 1.7650
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.7920, R2: 1.8010
- Analysis: GBP/SGD is expected to remain in a neutral range. The pair has been trading within its recent range and is likely to continue doing so unless a clear break above 1.7920 occurs.
AUD/SGD: 1.0150
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.0080/1.0260
- Support Levels: S1: 1.0120, S2: 1.0080
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0200, R2: 1.0260
- Analysis: AUD/SGD is in a neutral range with a broad sideways movement expected. A clear break out of the range would signal a directional move, but for now, the outlook remains neutral.
JPY/SGD: 1.2870
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.2755/1.3080
- Support Levels: S1: 1.2800, S2: 1.2755
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.2950, R2: 1.3080
- Analysis: JPY/SGD is expected to continue its volatile nature, with a sideways range likely to persist. The outlook remains neutral.
USD/MYR: 4.0600
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 4.1310
- Support Levels: S1: 4.0500, S2: 4.0300
- Resistance Levels: R1: 4.0860, R2: 4.1000
- Analysis: USD/MYR has a bullish outlook, but the odds of further strength have diminished. The pair needs to move above 4.0860 to maintain its upward trend.
USD/THB: 34.91
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 34.90/35.20
- Support Levels: S1: 34.90, S2: 34.82
- Resistance Levels: R1: 35.02, R2: 35.20
- Analysis: USD/THB is testing the lower end of its expected range. A daily close below 34.90 could indicate a move towards the next support level at 34.82.
USD/CNH: 6.6660
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 6.6530
- Support Levels: S1: 6.6600, S2: 6.6350
- Resistance Levels: R1: 6.6750, R2: 6.6850
- Analysis: USD/CNH is in a bearish phase with a clear downward trend. The immediate target is 6.6530, and the pair is expected to move lower unless it breaks above 6.6850.
CNH/SGD: 0.2026
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 0.2015/0.2038
- Support Levels: S1: 0.2015, S2: 0.2022
- Resistance Levels: R1: 0.2032, R2: 0.2038
- Analysis: CNH/SGD has shifted from a bullish to a neutral outlook. The pair is expected to trade within a broad range of 0.2015 to 0.2038.
EUR/USD: 1.1060
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.0950/1.1150
- Support Levels: S1: 1.0960, S2: 1.0950
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.1100, R2: 1.1150
- Analysis: EUR/USD is in a neutral phase after a strong rebound. The pair is expected to remain within the range of 1.0950 to 1.1150.
GBP/USD: 1.3240
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 1.3070/1.3320
- Support Levels: S1: 1.3150, S2: 1.3070
- Resistance Levels: R1: 1.3320, R2: 1.3400
- Analysis: GBP/USD has a positive undertone but faces strong resistance at 1.3320. A clear break above this level would indicate a sustained upward move.
AUD/USD: 0.7515
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 0.7440/0.7600
- Support Levels: S1: 0.7480, S2: 0.7440
- Resistance Levels: R1: 0.7560, R2: 0.7600
- Analysis: AUD/USD is expected to trade within a broad range. The pair has shown volatility and is likely to continue its sideways movement.
NZD/USD: 0.7105
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 0.6950/0.7120
- Support Levels: S1: 0.7060, S2: 0.7010
- Resistance Levels: R1: 0.7120, R2: 0.7170
- Analysis: NZD/USD is in a neutral phase, with a sideways range expected. A sustained move above 0.7120 is not anticipated.
USD/JPY: 104.85
- Outlook: Neutral
- Range: 103.80/107.00
- Support Levels: S1: 104.40, S2: 103.80
- Resistance Levels: R1: 105.50, R2: 106.05
- Analysis: USD/JPY is expected to trade within a broad range. The pair has shown increased volatility, but a sustained move below 103.80 is unlikely.
Upcoming Economic Data
- U.K. Nationwide House Prices
- German Unemployment Rate
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- U.S. Continuing Claims
FX Outlook for 2016
| Currency Pair | 3Q16 | 4Q16 | 1Q17 | 2Q17 | Rates Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | EU: 0.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.16 | UK: 0.00% |
| AUD/USD | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.80 | AU: 1.75% |
| NZD/USD | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.75 | NZ: 2.00% |
| USD/JPY | 105 | 106 | 109 | 110 | JP: -0.20% |
| USD/SGD | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.42 | SG: 0.90% |
| USD/MYR | 4.15 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.08 | MY: 3.00% |
| USD/THB | 36.0 | 36.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | TH: 1.50% |
| USD/CNY | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.59 | 6.62 | CN: 4.10% |
| USD/IDR | 13,200 | 13,200 | 13,300 | 13,400 | ID: 5.00% |
| USD/PHP | 47.0 | 46.0 | 45.0 | 43.0 | PH: 3.00% |
| USD/INR | 70.0 | 71.1 | 72.2 | 71.1 | IN: 6.50% |
| USD/TWD | 32.7 | 32.4 | 32.1 | 31.8 | TW: 1.38% |
| USD/HKD | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | HK: 0.75% |
| USD/KRW | 1190 | 1200 | 1220 | 1230 | KR: 1.00% |
| USD/US | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | US: 0.50% |
Central Bank Meetings in 2016
| Central Bank | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (FOMC) | 27 | - | 16 | 27 | - | - | 27 | - | 21 | - | 02 | 14 |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | 21 | - | 10 | 21 | - | 02 | 21 | - | 08 | 20 | - | 08 |
| Bank of England (BOE) | 14 | 04 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 04 | 15 | 13 | 03 | 15 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | - | 02 | 01 | 05 | 03 | 07 | 05 | 02 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 06 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | 28 | - | 10 | 28 | - | 09 | - | 11 | 22 | - | 10 | - |
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | 29 | - | 15 | 28 | - | 16 | 29 | - | 21 | - | 01 | - |
| Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) | 21 | - | 09 | - | 19 | - | 13 | - | 07 | - | 23 | - |
| Bank of Thailand (BOT) | - | 03 | 23 | - | 11 | 22 | - | 03 | 14 | - | 09 | 21 |
| Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) | - | - | - | 14 | - | - | - | - | TBA | - | - | - |
Disclaimer
This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
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