20140814-杰富瑞-PrimeTime_Asia_Today_At_A_Glance_16页_401kb

Asia Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of key financial insights and ratings for various Asian companies and sectors, including banks, property, insurance, utilities, technology, telecom services, and global economic outlooks. It includes analysis of earnings performance, valuation metrics, price targets, and investment recommendations.

Key Takeaways

China Credit Monitor - July 2014

• Weak RMB loans in July were 51% lower than consensus, likely due to weak demand and front-loaded growth in June.
• Banks are cautious due to rising credit risks and regulatory caution.
• Modest loan growth may help maintain reasonable loan pricing and ease NIM contraction pressure.

China Property

• NBS figures suggest the physical market is weaker than expected, with residential sales deteriorating and bank lending tightening.
• Sector is trading at a 43.5% discount to NAV.
• Preferred quality players: COLI, COGO, Vanke, and CR Land.

Insurance Development Guidance

• The State Council outlined a target for 5% insurance penetration and RMB3,500 density by 2020, implying a 16-17% CAGR.
• Insurance will play a more important role in social security, catastrophe management, retirement, and capital markets.

Utilities

• July power production growth was 3% YoY, lower than last month, but 10% MoM, above historical median.
• QHD coal prices rose by RMB5/t, but no significant recovery is expected.
• Positive on IPPs, especially China Resources Power (836 HK).

Angang Steel Company (347 HK)

• Downgraded to Hold due to limited upside and ROE expectations of ~3%.
• Price target remains at HK$5.80, valuing the company at ~0.7x 2015 PB.

Tencent Holdings (700 HK)

• Maintained Buy rating with a revised price target of HK$158.00 based on 33.6x FY15E P/E.
• Revenue excl. e-Commerce grew 51% YoY, driven by mobile advertising and games.

HC International (8292 HK)

• Reiterated Buy rating with a revised price target of HK$24.50.
• Investment in B2B verticals may help explore new revenue models.
• Trading at 9.3x 2015 EV/EBITDA with a 5.1% dividend yield.

JFE Holdings (5411 JP, JFEEF)

• Upgraded to Buy with price targets raised to ¥2,500 and $25.00.
• Six reasons for bullish stance: widening steel margins, strong domestic demand, realistic estimates, CAPEX plans, cheap valuation, and real estate.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)

• Retained Buy rating with a revised price target of INR930.
• Strong Q2 results due to better margins and lower tax rate.
• Expect growth to improve with Taro revenue recovery and continued strong performance in domestic and US markets.

Oil India Limited (OINL IN)

• Buy rating with price target of INR640.00.
• 1QFY15 EBITDA and net profit beat estimates due to lower subsidy share.
• Concerns over continued production decline; key catalysts include gas price hike and subsidy share improvement.

ONGC (ONGC IN)

• Buy rating with price target of INR440.00.
• Strong Q2 results due to lower operating expenses and higher realizations.
• Net profit missed due to dry-well expenses; key catalysts include gas price hike and subsidy share improvement.

Telecom Services

• Singtel introduced integrated mobile + Wi-Fi data plans, expected to boost data usage and offer flexibility.
• Carsales.Com (CRZ AU) downgraded to Neutral due to lack of near-term earnings surprises.
• Amcom Telecommunications (AMM AU) retains Positive rating with a revised price target of AUD2.24.
• Oz Minerals (OZL AU) retains Positive rating with a revised price target of AUD6.42.

Global Outlook

• Korea: Central bank expected to cut rates, but government tax proposals may have longer-term impact on share prices.
• Mirae Asset: Choinomics (Korea's QE policy) may take time to impact the economy and stock markets. Recommended focus on dividend plays with room for payouts and strong valuations.

Summary of Ratings and Price Targets

Key Themes

• Earnings Performance: Companies like Sun Pharmaceutical, Oil India, and ONGC showed strong results, while others like GREE and Cathay Pac Air reported weaker performance.
• Valuation and Price Targets: Many companies are undervalued, with attractive FCF yields and lower PERs, leading to Buy ratings.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Impact of interest rates, tax policies, and stimulus measures on financial performance and market sentiment.
• Sector Outlook: Positive outlook on utilities, telecom services, and healthcare, with caution in insurance and property sectors.