2017年-世界发展银行全球_Making_Trade_an_Engine_of_Growth_for_All___The_Case_for_Trade_and_for_Policies_to_Facilitate_Adjustment_64页_1mb

Summary of "Making Trade an Engine of Growth for All"

Core Content

This document outlines the importance of trade as a driver of global economic growth and the need for policies that support adjustment to trade-related changes. It emphasizes that while trade has historically contributed to productivity, lower prices, and improved living standards, recent trends show a slowdown in trade reform and an increase in protectionism, which have negatively impacted growth and inclusiveness. The paper argues that trade itself is not the problem, but the lack of supportive policies can lead to significant adjustment costs and social challenges.

Main Points

1. Trade as a Growth Engine

• Trade openness has historically driven economic growth, especially in the late 20th century, with global trade in goods and services growing at an average real rate of 6% per year from 1960 to 2007, outpacing GDP growth.
• Trade-related resource reallocation and technology adoption have boosted productivity.
• Open trade has expanded consumer choices and lowered prices, particularly benefiting lower-income households.

2. Trade and Inequality

• Trade has left some workers and communities behind, especially in advanced economies, leading to job losses and economic hardship.
• Dislocations are not solely due to trade but also to technological change and labor market rigidities.
• Adjustment costs are often concentrated and prolonged, requiring targeted domestic policies to mitigate their impact.

3. The Need for Inclusive Policies

• Domestic policies must support workers during trade adjustment, including labor mobility, active labor market programs (ALMPs), and social protection.
• Education, housing, and credit policies should also facilitate adjustment and support workers in transitioning to new opportunities.
• Trade adjustment assistance (TAA) and targeted job tax credits (TJTC) can help workers affected by import competition.

4. Trade Reform and Global Growth

• Further trade reforms are needed to enhance global growth and promote fair competition.
• Reducing trade barriers, especially in services and digital trade, can unlock significant economic potential.
• Strengthening the multilateral trading system, particularly the WTO, is essential to ensure fair and transparent trade rules.

5. The Role of the WTO

• A strong, well-enforced WTO system is critical for promoting competition and ensuring that trade is evenhanded.
• The WTO's dispute settlement function is vital for enforcing trade rules, including those on subsidies and "behind-the-border" measures.
• Reviving the WTO's negotiating function through plurilateral agreements and more flexible approaches is necessary to avoid protectionism and ensure global trade benefits all.

Key Information

• Trade Benefits: Trade has increased productivity, lowered prices, and improved living standards, especially for lower-income households.
• Trade Adjustment Costs: These can be severe and long-lasting, requiring proactive and comprehensive domestic policies.
• Services Trade: Despite its economic importance, services trade faces significant restrictions, including entry barriers, ownership limitations, and regulatory complexities.
• Trade Policy Trends: Trade agreements have increased in number and scope, with a shift from tariff liberalization to broader policy reforms.
• Global Trade Costs: Trade costs remain high, especially for EMDEs and agricultural goods, and are influenced by both policy and non-policy factors.
• Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs): NTMs are widespread and often more restrictive than tariffs, particularly in services and for low-income countries.

Conclusion

The paper calls for a renewed focus on inclusive trade policies that support adjustment and ensure the benefits of trade are widely shared. It stresses the importance of improving labor mobility, strengthening social safety nets, and reducing trade barriers, especially in services and digital trade, to promote sustainable and inclusive growth. The role of the WTO in maintaining a rules-based trading system is also highlighted as essential for global economic stability and fairness.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: Real trade and real GDP growth from 1960 to 2016 show trade outpacing GDP growth.
• Figure 2: A correlation between tariff reductions and GDP growth in 1990–2015 is evident.
• Figure 3: AEs' share in global merchandise trade has declined from ~70% in the early 1980s to ~40% in the early 2010s.
• Figure 4: Tariff ceilings in the WTO are often higher than applied rates, particularly in developing countries.
• Figure 5: NTMs are more prevalent in EMDEs and agricultural trade.
• Figure 6: Services trade restrictiveness is measured by the STRI, with some countries having high levels of restriction.
• Figure 7: Professional and transport services are among the most protected in both advanced and developing economies.
• Figure 8: The number of trade agreements notified to the WTO has increased significantly from 1990 to 2015.

Annexes and Supporting Research

• Annex A: Discusses trade, growth, and poverty in developing countries, showing that trade openness can reduce poverty.
• Annex B: Examines the impact of trade agreements on exports, highlighting their importance.
• Annex C: Provides evidence on the effect of trade on real incomes, showing positive long-term outcomes.
• Annex D: Analyzes adjustment frictions, emphasizing the need for early and comprehensive responses.
• Annex E: Reviews country experiences with trade adjustment policies, demonstrating varied approaches.

The paper also references several key international reports and studies, including the ILO and OECD analyses, which support the idea that trade, when supported by appropriate policies, can be a powerful tool for inclusive growth.