那提西银行-亚洲-经济理论-日本是否有明显的反应来抵消人口老龄化？-20180514-6页_610kb

Flash Economics Summary: Population Ageing and Growth in Japan

Core Content

Population ageing is a global phenomenon that will impact potential growth across most regions. Without mechanisms to offset its effects, this trend could lead to a slowdown in long-term economic growth. The report examines whether Japan, which has experienced more drastic and earlier population ageing than other countries, has implemented such mechanisms to counteract the decline in growth potential.

Main Points

1. Global Impact of Population Ageing

• Chart 1A shows the proportion of the population aged over 65, indicating that population ageing is occurring in all regions.
• Chart 1B illustrates the growth in the population aged 20-64, revealing that:
  • OECD countries, China, and Latin America are experiencing faster and more drastic population ageing.
  • India and Africa are seeing slower and later effects of population ageing.
• Chart 2A and 2B confirm that population ageing will curb potential growth globally, with Chart 2B highlighting the decline in per capita productivity.

2. Mechanisms to Offset Population Ageing

The report outlines several potential mechanisms to counteract the negative effects of population ageing:

• Investment and capital modernisation: Increased productivity gains through technological advancement and automation.
• Higher participation rate: More people entering the labor market, especially older workers.
• Lower structural unemployment: A more efficient labor market that reduces the number of people unable to find suitable employment.
• Higher immigration: Bringing in younger workers to offset the aging population.

3. Japan's Response to Population Ageing

Japan has been the first large country to face severe population ageing. The report analyzes its response to the challenge:

• Investment and capital modernisation: Japan invests more in industry and automation, but this has not translated into higher productivity gains.
• Participation rate: Japan has a notably higher participation rate, especially among individuals aged 55-64, which supports potential growth.
• Structural unemployment rate: Japan maintains a low structural unemployment rate, indicating a relatively efficient labor market.
• Immigration: Japan has very low levels of immigration, which is a significant gap compared to other mechanisms.

Key Information

• Japan's challenge: It has been the first large country to experience severe population ageing, making it an important case study.
• Limited success: While Japan has implemented some mechanisms (investment, participation rate, structural unemployment), it has not effectively addressed the issue through immigration.
• Global implications: The report suggests that these mechanisms may be applicable to other regions, but their effectiveness in Japan indicates that they may not be sufficient on their own.

Conclusion

The report concludes that although Japan has attempted to counter the effects of population ageing through investment, higher participation rates, and lower structural unemployment, it has not managed to significantly offset the decline in potential growth. The absence of substantial immigration remains a critical gap. These findings may inform other regions on the potential and limitations of various strategies to address population ageing.

Disclaimer

This document is intended for professional and qualified investors only and is strictly confidential. It does not constitute a financial analysis or personalized investment recommendation. The information is based on public data and is not subject to independent verification by Natixis. Recipients must be aware of and comply with any legal restrictions on the distribution or use of this document.