2016年-ECB欧洲央行_Review_of_draft_budgetary_plans_for_2017_and_the_budgetary_situation_for_the_euro_area_as_a_whole_4页_116kb

2017 Draft Budgetary Plans Review and Euro Area Fiscal Situation Summary

Core Content

The European Commission released its review of draft budgetary plans for 2017 and an analysis of the euro area's overall fiscal situation on 16 November 2016. This assessment is based on the 2016 autumn economic forecast and follows the guidance from the 2016 European Semester country-specific recommendations.

Compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)

• Fully compliant with the SGP: Germany, Estonia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Slovakia.
• Broadly compliant with the SGP: Ireland, Latvia, Malta, Austria, and France.
  • France's headline deficit is expected to fall below the 3% of GDP reference value by the 2017 EDP deadline, but the correction is not sustainable due to significant shortfalls in structural efforts.
• At risk of non-compliance with the SGP: Belgium, Italy, Cyprus, Lithuania, Slovenia, and Finland.
  • These countries face significant deviations from the MTO or debt reduction benchmarks, even with potential flexibility.

Key Table Insights

• Notes: Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Austria, and Finland have applied for flexibility under the SGP.

1. Countries under the preventive arm are considered broadly compliant if the deviation from the MTO or adjustment path is not significant.
2. Countries under EDP are considered broadly compliant if headline deficit targets are achieved but fiscal effort is lacking.
3. Countries under the preventive arm are at risk if there is a significant deviation from the MTO or debt reduction benchmark.
4. Countries under EDP are at risk if the EDP could be stepped up due to non-achievement of fiscal targets.

Fiscal Stance of the Euro Area

• The draft budgetary plans suggest a broadly neutral fiscal stance for the euro area in 2017, balancing stabilisation and sustainability.
• The Commission and the Eurogroup agree that this stance is appropriate, as it supports the fragile economic recovery while maintaining fiscal discipline.

Structural Efforts and Fiscal Space

• A significant number of euro area countries are not meeting their structural effort commitments, which are essential for SGP compliance.
• Some countries, such as Ireland and Malta, are overachieving their MTOs, indicating they have fiscal space to support domestic demand and growth.
• The Eurogroup encourages these countries to use their favourable budgetary positions to promote growth while respecting the MTO.

Future Outlook

• The Eurogroup will reassess countries' commitments in March 2017 based on the 2017 winter forecast.
• The Commission has not called for updated plans from any country, as the threshold for particularly serious non-compliance has not been met.
• The Five Presidents' Report (2015) highlights the need for a euro area fiscal instrument to enhance automatic stabilisation and risk-sharing, but such instruments are not yet in place.
• The report stresses that economic convergence, financial integration, and coordinated budget decisions are prerequisites for such instruments.

Conclusion

The 2017 draft budgetary plans show a mixed picture of compliance with the SGP. While five countries are fully compliant, others are at risk due to significant shortfalls in structural efforts. The euro area as a whole is expected to maintain a broadly neutral fiscal stance, which is seen as appropriate for supporting recovery and sustainability. However, the composition of fiscal policies across countries remains uneven, with some needing to improve and others having room to support growth. The lack of a unified euro area fiscal instrument continues to be a key limitation in achieving more coordinated and effective fiscal policy responses.