2025-06-05-Jefferies-发热树（FEVR）_年度股东大会更新_进展顺利_7页_104kb

Fever-Tree Equity Research Summary (June 5, 2025)

Executive Update

• On-track for FY25 rating and price target delivery as of6/5/2025.
• Strong start to the year with sales growth exceeding 12% and EBITDA margins of 12.8%, meeting market expectations.
• Improved progress in the US from the strategic partnership with Molson Coors (TAP deal), facilitating scale and market depth.

US Market Performance

• Record growth of close to 10% YTD (NielsenIQ) despite supply chain transition, attributing it to smooth integration.
• TAP deal enhancing market position through amplified distribution, funding for brand awareness, and reduced supply chain volatility.
• Sustained"underlying brand performance" and consumer preference in a weaker beverage sector.

UK and Global Markets

• Maintained #1 market share in both on-trade and off-trade sectors in the UK, boosted by favorable weather.
• Europe shows growth in France (28.5% YoY), while Germany remains cautious.
• ROW expands with localized production (e.g., Australia), driving further share gains.

Valuation

• Rating: Hold ($820 pence) with a medium-term outlook.
• Price-to-Earnings (PE) Estimate: 21.5x for 2025.
• Dividend Yield: Context not detailed, but value assessed through market cap ($1.4B) and discounted cash flow (DCF).

Risks and Future Outlook

• Downside Factors: Intensifying competition, distribution issues, and evolving consumer behavior.
• Upward Catalysts: Premium mixer penetration, potential M&A take-out, recovery in Europe, and diversification from tonic into mixers.
• Ten-Year Outlook: Positioned to benefit from global premiumization trends with a focus on execution capabilities.

Analyst Views & Disclosures

• Equity analysts confirm favorable roadmaps but advise monitoring currency and tariff impacts.
• No direct financial interest conflicts cited.

• Original Report Source: Fever-Tree Drinks equity research by Jefferies, dated June 5, 2025.