20260201-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

Fuel Oil Market Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides a detailed analysis of the fuel oil market, covering supply, demand, inventory, price movements, and market strategies for both high-sulfur (HSFO) and low-sulfur (LSFO) fuel oils. It also includes insights into the Chinese and global futures markets, as well as the spread between different markets and the term structure of swaps.

Main Views

• Price Volatility: Fuel oil prices have entered a phase of high volatility, with short-term market sentiment likely to continue developing.
• HSFO Market:
  • Global crude distillation unit (CDU) shutdowns have slightly increased.
  • Middle Eastern exports have not yet flowed into Singapore and Malaysia, and Singapore imports have not shown a significant upward trend.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the direction of Iran remain a concern, and the market is wary of unexpected supply disruptions.
  • A notable rise in Singapore imports would indicate no obstacles to global HSFO production and circulation, potentially leading to a significant price decline.
• LSFO Market:
  • Al Zour refinery has resumed production, and Japanese exports are gradually increasing.
  • Brazilian exports are declining due to refinery maintenance.
  • European gasoline and diesel crack remains high, leading to limited LSFO exports.
  • LSFO market has support at its bottom and is unlikely to weaken significantly in the short term.
• Valuation:
  • HSFO: 2850~2950
  • LSFO: 3200~3400
• Strategy:
  1. Short-term market sentiment may continue to develop.
  2. The monthly difference structure between FU and LU has returned to contango and is unlikely to reverse under loose supply conditions.
  3. The LU-FU price spread is expected to narrow in the short term.
• Risk Factors:
  • Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Latin America.
  • China-US trade negotiations.

Key Information

Supply

• Refinery Utilization:
  • Chinese refinery utilization data shows both state-owned and independent refineries' CDU usage.
  • Global refinery maintenance data includes CDU, hydrocracker, FCC, and coker.
• Production and Supply:
  • China's fuel oil production and merchandise amounts are reported monthly.
  • LSFO production in China is also detailed monthly.

Demand

• Global Fuel Oil Demand:
  • Bunker fuel sales in Singapore and China's fuel oil apparent consumption are tracked monthly.
• LSFO Demand:
  • LSFO consumption in Chinese ports is monitored monthly.

Inventory

• Global Fuel Oil Inventory:
  • Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, Fujairah, and the United States are key regions for fuel oil inventory tracking.

Price & Spread

• Asian Market:
  • Singapore and Fujairah HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are reported.
• European Market:
  • NWE and Mediterranean HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are analyzed.
• American Market:
  • USGC and New York Harbour HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are covered.
• OTC Swap Market:
  • Singapore and NWE HSFO and LSFO swap prices are included.
• Chinese Future Market:
  • FU and LU futures contracts are detailed with their close prices and trading volumes.
• Physical Market Spread:
  • HSFO and LSFO FOB price spreads in Singapore are analyzed.
• Global Fuel Oil Crack:
  • HSFO and LSFO crack prices for Singapore and NWE are provided.
• Term Structure:
  • Calendar spreads for HSFO and LSFO in Singapore and NWE are included.

Import & Export

• Chinese Market:
  • Monthly import and export volumes for fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) are reported.
• Global HSFO Import and Export:
  • Weekly import and export volumes for HSFO are tracked globally.
• Global LSFO Import and Export:
  • Weekly import and export volumes for LSFO are detailed, with regional breakdowns.

Market Analysis

Price Trends

• The Asian market saw a significant increase in fuel oil prices.
• The HSFO domestic and foreign spot prices are gradually strengthening, leading to a narrowing of the price difference.
• LU prices in the internal market are rising more sharply than in the external market, causing an expansion of the domestic and foreign price difference.

Futures Market

• Trading Volume and Open Interest:
  • Data on trading volume and open interest for FU and LU contracts are provided, showing the market activity for both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils.
  • The report highlights the dynamics between different futures contracts, such as FUM, LUM00, LUM01, and LUM02.

Spread Analysis

• Domestic and Overseas Spot Market:
  • The spread between Zhoushan and Singapore for both HSFO and LSFO is detailed.
• Overseas Spot Market and Chinese Futures:
  • The price spreads between Chinese futures and overseas spot prices are analyzed, indicating the market's expectations and dynamics.

Disclaimer

• The information provided is for reference by professional investors.
• The report does not constitute investment recommendations or advice.
• The company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information.
• The report is the intellectual property of GTJA Futures and may not be reproduced or distributed without written permission.
• Investors are advised to make their own decisions and bear the associated risks.