2009年-世界发展银行全球_Options_for_a_Low_Carbon_Energy_Future_in_Morocco_88页_3mb

Summary of "Options for a low carbon energy future in Morocco"

Core Content

This report, prepared by Beicip-Franlab for the World Bank in November 2009, analyzes Morocco's current energy supply and demand, evaluates its 2030 energy strategy, and proposes an alternative low-carbon energy scenario based on increased renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) measures.

Main Objectives

• Analyze the current characteristics of energy supply and demand in Morocco
• Assess Morocco's energy strategy for the coming years
• Propose an alternative low-carbon energy scenario to stabilize CO2 emissions

Key Findings and Main Points

1. Morocco's Energy Demand and Growth

• Morocco's economy is experiencing rapid growth across sectors, leading to a steady increase in energy demand.
• In 2003–2007, primary energy demand increased by 5% annually, and electricity demand by 8% annually.
• The country's energy demand is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly oil and coal.

2. Energy Supply Overview (2006)

• Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES): 13.4 Mtoe/y
• Energy mix:
  • Oil and petroleum products: 63% of TPES
  • Coal: 28% of TPES
  • Gas: 3.7%
  • Hydro: 8%
  • Wind: 2%
  • Biomass: 5% (mainly used in the power sector)
• Imports: 103% of TPES, with a significant share from oil and petroleum products.
• Exports: -8% of TPES, indicating a net importer of energy.

3. Energy Transformation and Power Production

• Refineries: Consume 2% of TPES. A new hydrocracking unit and diesel desulphurization unit are expected to increase efficiency and reduce emissions.
• Power production:
  • Thermal power: Dominates with 83% of the mix, mainly from coal (60% of power production).
  • Hydro: 4% of the mix, but its contribution is highly dependent on rainfall.
  • Wind: 1% of the mix, but potential is significant.
  • Pumped storage plants (PSP): 3% of the mix, with a 464 MW facility in Afourer contributing to 30% of hydro power.
• Power losses: 1% of TPES, mainly due to grid inefficiencies.

4. Energy Consumption by Sectors (2006)

• Final energy consumption: 75% of TPES
  • Agriculture: 10% of TPES
  • Industry: 18% of TPES
  • Transport: 26% of TPES
  • Residential & commercial: 18% of TPES
  • Other (non-energy): 2% of TPES

5. CO2 Emissions

• CO2 from fuel combustion: 2.2% of TPES
• Greenhouse gas emissions: 2.2% of TPES
• Benchmarking: Morocco's emissions are relatively high compared to other countries, especially in the power sector.

6. Morocco's 2030 Energy Strategy

• Targets:
  • Renewable energy: 15% of TPES (according to MEMEE)
  • Nuclear: 5% of TPES
  • Gas: 5% of TPES
  • Petroleum products: 12% of TPES
  • Energy efficiency: 4% of TPES
• Evaluation:
  • Indicators: Cost of CO2 abatement, energy bill, import dependency, and emission intensity
  • Cost of CO2 abatement: Significant investment required, but potential for cost reduction with EE and RE
  • Import dependency: 13.76 Mtoe/y in 2006
  • Emission intensity: 0.76 tCO2/MWh, indicating a high carbon footprint

7. Proposed High EE&RE Scenario

• Goals: Stabilize energy CO2 emissions and increase RE and EE
• Key measures:
  • Renewable energy: Expand wind and solar capacity, increase RE share to 30% of TPES
  • Nuclear: Develop nuclear power to reduce fossil fuel reliance
  • Gas: Use gas as a transitional fuel
  • Petroleum products: Reduce consumption through EE
  • Coal: Decrease usage due to higher emission intensity
  • Energy efficiency: Implement measures such as improved transportation and lighting
• Deep electrification: Promote electricity use in transportation and industry to reduce fossil fuel dependency
• CO2 abatement:
  • The high EE&RE scenario reduces CO2 emissions significantly
  • It is more economically viable than the current strategy due to lower emission intensity and cost savings

8. Comparison with Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario

• The high EE&RE scenario results in lower CO2 emissions and higher energy efficiency
• The cost of CO2 abatement is lower in the high EE&RE scenario
• The BAU scenario leads to a 45% increase in CO2 emissions by 2030

9. Solar Plan (November 2009)

• A new solar plan was introduced, increasing the renewable energy target in 2020
• This plan aims to make solar energy comparable to wind energy in terms of contribution to the energy mix
• It includes the development of solar power plants, such as the Andasol 1 plant, which is a key example of concentrated solar power (CSP) with storage

Key Information

• Morocco's energy mix is dominated by oil and coal, with limited contributions from renewable sources.
• Renewable energy potential is high, especially in wind and solar.
• Energy efficiency is a critical component in reducing emissions and improving competitiveness.
• The high EE&RE scenario is a more sustainable and cost-effective approach to achieving low carbon emissions.
• Morocco's strategy includes a mix of renewable and nuclear energy, but it falls short of the high EE&RE scenario in terms of emission reduction and cost efficiency.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency into Morocco's energy strategy to achieve a low-carbon future. It outlines the potential of wind and solar energy, the need for improved energy efficiency in transportation and industry, and the benefits of a more diversified energy mix. The proposed high EE&RE scenario is presented as a more viable path to stabilize CO2 emissions and reduce the country's reliance on fossil fuels.