战略与国际研究中心-Freeman-Report-Dec-2008_5页_433kb

FREEMAN REPORT Summary – December 2008

Core Content

The December 2008 issue of the Freeman Report focuses on China's economic development, its evolving relationship with the United States, and the broader implications of the global financial crisis. It highlights how China's economic rise has been deeply intertwined with its engagement with the U.S.-led economic order, despite growing disillusionment with the American financial model following the crisis.

Main Points

China's Economic Transformation

• Growth and Development: Over the past 30 years, China's GDP has grown at an average rate of 9.8%, significantly outpacing the global average of 3%.
• Income Increase: Per capita income rose from USD 190 in 1978 to USD 2,360 in 2007, marking a transition from a low-income to a lower-middle-income country.
• Trade Expansion: Total import and export value increased from USD 20.6 billion in 1978 to USD 2.17 trillion in 2007, a 104-fold increase.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: From USD 167 million in 1978 to USD 1.5 trillion in 2007, showing China's integration into the global financial system.
• Global Trade Ranking: China has remained the third-largest trading nation since 2004, up from 32nd in 1978.

U.S.-China Economic Relationship

• Strategic Economic Dialogue: The fifth round of the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue was dominated by the global financial crisis. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson praised China's "responsible role" in the crisis, while Vice Premier Wang Qishan expressed concern about the safety of China's assets in the U.S.
• China's Learning Process: China has historically adopted American economic models, albeit selectively, and has benefited from engaging with the U.S.-led economic order. However, the global financial crisis has sparked a shift in perception, with China questioning the reliability of the American model.
• Role of the U.S. in Shaping China's Policies: U.S. officials have often acted as "teachers" to China, pushing for financial liberalization and trade reforms. China, while initially compliant, has grown more skeptical of such guidance, especially in light of the crisis.

China's Response to the Financial Crisis

• Emotional Journey: China's reaction to the crisis has evolved from denial and shock to anger and then to resolve. This shift reflects a broader reassessment of the American economic model.
• Reform Efforts: China has made gradual financial reforms, including changes in exchange rate policy and increased participation in international capital markets. However, these reforms are now under scrutiny due to the crisis.
• Self-Confidence and Independence: Chinese policymakers are increasingly recognizing the value of their own economic model and are less inclined to accept American advice as infallible. This shift could lead to a more assertive role in shaping the global economic order.

Key Events and Issues

U.S.-China Relations

• Strategic Economic Dialogue (July 2008): Vice Premier Wang Qishan criticized the U.S. financial system, comparing it to the resilience of China. This marked a turning point in the dialogue.
• Obama Administration: The report anticipates that the new administration will need to engage with China more effectively, given the growing complexity of U.S.-China relations and the shared global interests.

International Relations

• France-China Tensions: French President Nicolas Sarkozy's meeting with the Dalai Lama in Poland caused significant diplomatic tension with China, leading to the cancellation of an EU-China summit and warnings about trade relations.
• APEC Summit: CSIS hosted a press briefing on the APEC summit, emphasizing the importance of economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.

Key Publications

• "China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities": A joint publication by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and CSIS, analyzing China's global role and U.S.-China relations.
• "Crafting U.S. Economic Strategy toward Asia": A CSIS report summarizing 30 years of U.S. engagement with Asia, offering insights for future policy.

Trivia Question Answer

• Chinese Students in U.S. Universities: 624,000 Chinese students were enrolled in U.S. universities in 2008, representing a 20% increase from the previous year.

Conclusion

The Freeman Report underscores the complex and evolving nature of U.S.-China economic relations. While China has benefited from the U.S.-led economic order, the global financial crisis has prompted a reevaluation of the American model. Chinese policymakers are now more aware of the need for self-reliance and are likely to play a more active role in shaping the future of global economic governance.