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Changyou.com (CYOU.US) 1Q15 Summary

核心内容

Changyou.com (CYOU.US) reported its 1Q15 results, which were in-line with market expectations. The company achieved total revenue of US$209 million, exceeding its earlier high-end guidance of US$200 million by 4.5%. This represents a 15% year-over-year (YoY) increase but a 3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline. The improved financial performance was attributed to effective cost control measures, resulting in a stable gross margin of 68% and a significant increase in net margin to 23%, up from 5% in 4Q14.

主要观点

• 财务表现:

  • Revenue in 1Q15 reached US$209 million, beating the earlier guidance.
  • Revenue growth was 15% YoY but declined 3% QoQ.
  • Gross margin remained stable at 68%, while net margin improved significantly to 23%.
  • Management provided a softer 2Q15 revenue guidance of US$180–190 million, below the market consensus of US$215.5 million, due to the divestment of 7Road and a seasonal slowdown in the TLBB PC game.

• 运营表现:

  • Online games accounted for 88.5% of total revenues, contributing US$185 million.
  • Online ads revenue declined 47% QoQ due to seasonality.
  • Mobile game performance was stable, while PC game progress slowed.
  • MMO games showed a decline in total MAU, down 25% YoY and 29% QoQ, due to the company's actions against false accounts.
  • Mobile games MAU increased 69% YoY but fell 37% QoQ, driven by the launch of TLBB 3D in 2014.
  • The company plans to launch 10+ new game titles in 2015, with a focus on increasing mobile game revenue.

• 战略与市场动向:

  • Changyou has been investing in mobile technology and distribution platforms, including acquiring a 51% stake in Dolphin browser.
  • In April 2015, the company entered into agreements to divest 7Road and overseas assets, totaling approximately US$200 million.
  • These actions have fueled market speculation about a potential delisting from the US market and a return to the A-share market.
  • It is noted that this trend is common among Chinese gaming companies aiming for higher valuations.

• 估值与市场表现:

  • Changyou is currently trading at 8x 2015F PE, which is lower than its US-listed gaming peers but higher than its HK and A share listed counterparts.
  • The company has a market capitalization of US$1.53 billion, with a share price of US$28.95 as of 28 April 2015.
  • Key shareholders include Neuberger Berman Group (13.44%) and Prominence Investments (7.83%).

关键信息

• 收入构成:

  • Online games: 88.5% of total revenue.
  • Online ads: 11.5% of total revenue, but declined 47% QoQ.

• 运营指标:

  • Total MAU for MMO games: Down 25% YoY and 29% QoQ.
  • Mobile MAU: Up 69% YoY but down 37% QoQ.

• 未来计划:

  • Launch 10+ new game titles in 2015, including 5 PC and 6 mobile games.
  • Focus on mobile game development to increase revenue contribution.

• 市场趋势:

  • There is a growing trend among Chinese gaming companies to delist from the US and return to the A-share market for higher valuations.

• 资产剥离:

  • The divestment of 7Road and overseas assets is expected to impact 2Q15 revenue guidance.

• 股价与交易量:

  • ADRs for Changyou.com account for 36.7% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and 23.7% of the H-share Index.
  • The company's stock is trading at a relatively low valuation compared to its peers.

财务指标概览

同业对比

总结

Changyou.com has demonstrated stable financial performance in 1Q15, with revenue in-line with market expectations and improved margins. The company is focusing on mobile game development to drive future growth, while also considering asset divestment and potential delisting from the US market to increase valuation. The financial metrics indicate a relatively low valuation compared to its peers, but the company is still in a growth phase with plans to launch multiple new game titles in 2015.