2026年1月全球投资趋势监测报告_20页_391kb

2025 Global FDI Summary

Core Content

In 2025, global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased by 14%, reaching an estimated $1.6 trillion. This growth was primarily driven by increased inflows in developed economies, which saw a 43% rise to $728 billion, while developing economies experienced a 2% decline to $877 billion. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) saw stagnant or declining inflows, with only a few exceptions.

Main Points

• Global FDI Growth:

  • Total global FDI reached $1.6 trillion in 2025, a 14% increase from 2024.
  • The rise was largely due to increased flows through major financial centers and investment hubs.
  • Net growth after accounting for conduit FDI fluctuations was about 5%.

• Project Announcements:

  • International investment deals (M&A, greenfield, and project finance) were mostly in negative territory.
  • M&A values declined by 10%, despite a rise in domestic deals.
  • Greenfield project numbers dropped by 16%, but their total value remained high due to investments in data centers and semiconductors.
  • International project finance continued its downward trend for the fourth consecutive year, with values declining by 16%.

• Industry Trends:

  • Data Centers: Became a major driver of FDI, accounting for one-fifth of greenfield project values, with a total of $270 billion in greenfield investments.
  • Semiconductors: Recorded a 35% increase in project values, driven by demand for AI and high-end chips.
  • Renewable Energy: Declined by 28% in greenfield project value and 7% in project finance, as investors pulled back due to revenue risks and regulatory challenges.
  • GVC-Intensive Sectors: Experienced sharp declines in both project numbers and values, especially in textiles, electronics, and machinery, due to tariff uncertainty and shifting supply chains.

• Regional Trends:

  • High-Income Economies: FDI rose by 22%, with the EU seeing a 56% increase. The US saw a 2% increase, but greenfield projects declined by 16%.
  • Middle-Income Countries: FDI increased by 4%, with Latin America and the Caribbean showing the strongest growth (24%). Brazil saw a 42% increase, and Mexico increased by 16%.
  • Lower-Income Economies: FDI declined by 5%, with Africa experiencing a sharp drop of one-third. However, some countries like Angola and Mozambique saw positive inflows.

Key Information

• Greenfield Projects:

  • The number of greenfield projects in high-income economies declined by 16%, but the total value rose by 22%.
  • In the US, greenfield project value reached $360 billion, with semiconductors and data centers being the main contributors.
  • In Brazil, greenfield project numbers remained unchanged, but their total value declined by 20%.

• International Project Finance:

  • Declined by 16% in value and 12% in number in 2025, continuing a four-year downward trend.
  • Renewable energy projects saw a 1% decline in value, while transport infrastructure doubled in value to $53 billion.
  • Domestic project finance rebounded strongly, with a 58% increase in number and 21% in value, particularly in renewable energy.

• Major Investors and Projects:

  • MGX Fund Management (UAE) announced a $43.4 billion data center project in France.
  • TSMC (Taiwan) announced multiple semiconductor projects in the US, including five fabrication plants and an R&D center, totaling $25,000 million.
  • Woodside Energy (Australia) and Iberdrola (Spain) were among the largest greenfield projects in the US and Mexico, respectively.

Outlook

• 2026 Projections:

  • FDI growth is still possible due to easing inflation and borrowing costs in major markets.
  • However, geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are expected to depress project activity.
  • There is likely to be further concentration of capital in strategic industries like data centers and semiconductors.

• Challenges:

  • Lower-income countries continue to face financing constraints, risk perceptions, and structural vulnerabilities.
  • GVC-intensive industries and infrastructure sectors, particularly renewable energy, are struggling with reduced investment due to uncertainty and declining returns.