英文_高盛_美国美容产品销量在5月放缓；拜尔斯道夫在护肤领域表现出色_13页_887kb

Europe Consumer Products Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the US Beauty and Personal Care market, focusing on the performance of key companies such as L'Oréal, Beiersdorf, and Unilever. It also includes valuation methodologies, key risks, and regulatory disclosures relevant to these companies.

Key Market Insights

• US Beauty Market Performance (April–May 2025):

  • Nielsen US Beauty and Personal Care data for the four weeks to May 17th showed sales growth of +0.8% with volumes declining -2.7%, weaker than the previous month despite easier comparisons.
  • Derma sales declined -7.6%, with weak volume partly offset by positive price-mix.
  • Makeup, eye & face cosmetics sales were down -6.2% and -7.4% respectively, unchanged compared to April.
  • Nielsen only captures 40% of the US beauty market and does not cover online sales (28% of the market) or beauty specialists (16% of sales), such as Sephora and Ulta, which tend to outperform tracked channels.

• E-commerce Dominance:

  • E-commerce is the largest channel in the US Beauty and Personal Care market, accounting for ~40% of sales (vs. 7% in 2010).
  • The US represents ~21% of global Beauty and Personal Care sales.

• Market Growth Trends:

  • Before the 2021-2023 growth acceleration, the US market grew at ~+3% annually.
  • The market has experienced mixed performance in recent months, with some categories showing decline and others showing resilience.

Company Performance Analysis

L'Oréal (Buy, on CL, €430 PT)

• US Contribution: Represents 25% of Group sales.
• Sales Decline: Sales declined -3.3% in Nielsen-tracked channels, with volume up +1.3%.
• Category Performance:
  • CeraVe: -6.8%
  • La Roche-Posay: -2.7%
  • Maybelline: -5.2%
  • NYX: Flat, but outperformed face and eye cosmetics.
  • L'Oreal Paris: -1.4%
  • Garnier: -2.2%
• Key Risks:
  • Slower-than-expected recovery in China post Daigou policy changes.
  • US market slowdown due to macroeconomic headwinds or consumer trends.
  • Shift to digital channels leading to market share losses.
  • FX volatility and consumer demand in key markets.

Beiersdorf (Buy, €150 PT)

• US Contribution: Represents 10% of Group sales.
• Sales Decline: Overall sales declined -3.6%, with volume down -8.6% (vs. -3.1% in April).
• Derma Performance:
  • Derma sales grew +1% (vs. +2.9% in April), showing moderation.
  • Nivea declined -8.9% (vs. -3.0% in April).
  • Coppertone declined -7.3%, now trending in line with the sunscreen category.
• Key Risks:
  • Investment program failing to deliver strong organic growth.
  • Adverse FX trends.
  • Deceleration of La Prairie growth due to limited e-commerce presence.

Unilever (Neutral, €60 PT / 5,100p)

• US Contribution: Represents 12% of Group sales (Beauty, Wellbeing & Personal Care).
• Sales Growth:
  • Overall sales grew +5.5%, slowing sequentially despite similar comps.
  • Volume: -0.7%, offset by price/mix: +6.2%.
  • Dove: +9.5% sales growth, slower than previous comps.
  • TRESémme: -3.5%.
  • Axe: -7.6% with -9.1% volume.
  • Liquid I.V.: Accelerated with +27.4% sales growth and +34.5% volume growth.
  • Vaseline: +3.7%.
• Key Risks:
  • Macro conditions in emerging markets (EMs) affecting performance.
  • Investment decisions and R&D spending.
  • Commodity price unwinds impacting margins.
  • M&A activity with potential value-creating or destructive outcomes.

Valuation Methodologies

• L'Oréal:

  • Price Target: €430.
  • Methodology: Blend of DCF and multiple approach (50% each).
  • DCF: Assumes 6.6% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth, implying intrinsic value of €448/share.
  • Multiple Approach: Uses 28x P/E on Q5-Q8 EPS, implying value of €402/share.

• Beiersdorf:

  • Price Target: €150.
  • Methodology: Blend of DCF and multiple approach (50% each).
  • DCF: Assumes 6.9% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth, implying intrinsic value of €150.4/share.
  • Multiple Approach: Uses 28x P/E on Q5-Q8 EPS, implying value of €148.9/share.

• Unilever:

  • Price Target: €60 (Euro listing) / 5,100p (PLC).
  • Methodology: Blend of DCF and multiple approach (50% each).
  • DCF: Assumes 7.2% WACC and 2% terminal growth, implying value of €57.8/share.
  • Multiple Approach: Uses 19x P/E on Q5-Q8 EPS, implying value of €62.6/share.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Market Share Shifts: Drug retailers are losing share to e-commerce and beauty specialists, which are not tracked by Nielsen.
• Nielsen Limitations: Nielsen data does not fully represent the market, as it excludes online sales and beauty specialists.
• Valuation Sensitivity: All valuations are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, FX fluctuations, and consumer behavior.
• M&A Potential: Goldman Sachs uses an M&A rank system (1–3) to score companies based on acquisition likelihood, with ranks 1 and 2 factoring into target prices.

Regulatory and Disclosure Information

• Conflicts of Interest: Goldman Sachs may have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed, which could affect objectivity.
• Disclosure Appendix: Contains detailed regulatory information, including:
  • Reg AC Certification: All views reflect personal opinions.
  • GS Factor Profile: Compares key attributes (Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, Integrated) of the stocks to the market and sector peers.
  • M&A Rank: Used to assess potential acquisition likelihood.
  • Quantum Database: A proprietary tool for financial analysis.
  • Pricing Information: Includes current stock prices (as of May 26, 2025).
• Distribution of Ratings: The document includes charts showing the distribution of ratings and investment banking relationships.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The US Beauty and Personal Care market shows mixed performance, with volume declines in key categories but some resilience in specific products and channels. L'Oréal and Beiersdorf are highlighted as outperformers in certain segments, despite overall declines, while Unilever benefits from strong growth in Liquid I.V. and Vaseline. Valuation methodologies are based on a blend of DCF and multiples, with key risks including macroeconomic conditions, FX volatility, and digital channel shifts. Regulatory disclosures emphasize potential conflicts of interest and the limitations of Nielsen data.