20210915-IMF-Joint_IMF-WBG_Staff_Note_DSSI_Fiscal_Monitoring_Update_18页_519kb

报告摘要

JOINT IMF-WBG STAFF NOTE: DSSI FISCAL MONITORING UPDATE

September 2021

Executive Summary Overview

This staff note analyzes the fiscal responses of DSSI beneficiaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. It discusses their fiscal efforts in 2020 and projections for 2021, highlighting challenges, spending reprioritization, financing support, and governance measures to tackle corruption risks.

Fiscal Efforts in 2020

Revenue and Spending Pressures: Beneficiaries faced revenue declines due to economic contraction and lost commodity prices, widening fiscal deficits.
- Average tax revenue dropped by 2.2% of GDP (about 80% faced lower taxes).
- Overall spending increased but cut capital spending (average 1.1% of GDP decrease).
COVID-Related Spending: Expanded significantly, averaging 1.6% of GDP (health, social protection, household support).
Debt Vulnerabilities: High pre-pandemic vulnerabilities worsened due to persistent deficits.

Supportive Financing:

IMF disbursed US$23 billion ($19.6 billion net transfers).
World Bank committed US$52.4 billion financing (US$8.8 billion grants).

Fiscal Efforts in 2021 (Projected)

Modest Adjustments: Projections show modest fiscal improvements but continued heterogeneity.
- Revenues projected to increase slightly (average 0.2% GDP).
- COVID-related spending declines in part (average 0.5% GDP decrease) due to policy unwinding.
Challenges Persist:
- Fiscal deficits remain high.
- Small states face significant revenue challenges due to tourism declines.
- Downside risks include pandemic intensification and economic shocks.

Governance and Transparency Measures

Beneficiaries committed to enhanced transparency to ensure effective use of COVID-related spending.
Key measures: publishing contracts, beneficial ownership disclosures, and spending reports.
Capacity development support from the IMF and World Bank strengthened Public Financial Management.

Conclusion

The DSSI provided crucial liquidity support, but ongoing fiscal pressures underscore the need for effective implementation of the Common Framework post-DSSI expiration. Countries face continued revenue challenges and risks of long-term debt impacts.

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