2021-06-01-ASPI-Mitigating_the_risk_of_a_China-India_conflict_16页_2mb

Summary: Mitigating the Risk of a China-India Conflict

Core Content

The document "Mitigating the risk of a China-India conflict" by Arzan Tarapore from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyzes the current situation between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and explores the potential for escalation into a limited conventional war. It highlights the geopolitical and military dynamics that have contributed to the increased risk of conflict, while also emphasizing the importance of strategic partnerships, particularly with the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), in managing and mitigating such risks.

Main Views

• The Ladakh Crisis is a Stalemate with Escalation Potential:

  • The crisis has seen a reduction in tactical tensions but not in military readiness.
  • Both sides continue to reinforce their positions near the LAC, increasing the likelihood of conflict.
  • The crisis has not resolved underlying territorial disputes, and unresolved friction points remain.

• Military Capabilities and Intent:

  • China:
    • Has significantly enhanced its military capabilities on the LAC, including air power, light armour, and artillery.
    • The PLA has built permanent infrastructure and staging areas to support long-term operations.
    • China's intent is revisionist, aiming to assert its 1959 claim lines and demonstrate regional dominance.
    • Its strategy includes grey-zone tactics to avoid triggering a full-scale war.
  • India:
    • Has also bolstered its military capabilities, including deploying main battle tanks and modern aircraft.
    • India's military doctrine emphasizes punitive retaliation, though it has not executed it due to lack of viable options.
    • The Indian Army's bold occupation of high ground in late 2020 was a strategic move to gain leverage.

• Risk Manipulation as a Strategic Tool:

  • Both China and India have used risk as a means of coercion and deterrence.
  • China has historically used this tactic in disputes with its neighbors and the US.
  • India, under Modi, has grown more willing to take calculated risks, as seen in its August 2020 occupation of the Kailash Range.

• Consequences of Conflict:

  • A war would impose significant costs on India, both militarily and politically.
  • Political Repercussions:
    • China may face international backlash, especially if seen as the aggressor.
    • India's strategic partnerships, particularly with the US and Australia, could be strained.
  • Military Repercussions:
    • China's military advantage, including modern weapons systems and efficient command structures, would likely lead to a favorable outcome for Beijing.
    • India's cyber vulnerabilities could be exploited by China, adding to the pressure on New Delhi.

Key Information

• Military Readiness:

  • Both sides are well-prepared for potential conflict, with increased troop numbers, infrastructure, and modernization efforts.
  • China's military operations are no longer hindered by seasonal limitations, increasing the potential for year-round escalation.

• Strategic Partnerships:

  • The Quad has become a key strategic partner for India in countering China.
  • India's participation in the Quad, including the Malabar naval exercises and joint initiatives on vaccines, reflects its growing reliance on these alliances.
  • The document suggests that the Quad's effectiveness in deterring conflict and supporting India will depend on coordinated and sensitive policy-making.

• Diplomatic and Public Messaging:

  • Poorly timed or tone-deaf diplomatic messages can exacerbate tensions and damage relationships.
  • The US and India's vaccine and FONOP disputes demonstrate how missteps can strain bilateral ties.
  • Clear and strategic communication is essential to maintain trust and avoid unintended escalations.

• Cyber Dimension:

  • Cyberattacks have been used as a tool of coercion, with China targeting India's national power grid during the Ladakh crisis.
  • India acknowledges its cyber vulnerabilities and the need to develop capabilities to counter such threats.

Recommendations

• Policy Coordination:

  • India and its Quad partners must coordinate policies and messaging to avoid missteps that could undermine trust.
  • Policies should be developed in consultation with India to ensure alignment and effectiveness.

• Deterrence and Preparedness:

  • The Quad should be prepared to act in a crisis, with a clear strategy for supporting India in case of conflict.
  • Deterrence efforts must be reinforced through both military and diplomatic means.

• Public Narrative Management:

  • Governments must be mindful of how their actions are perceived in the public sphere.
  • A strong and unified public narrative is crucial for maintaining India's strategic autonomy and its relationships with the Quad.

Conclusion

While a full-scale war between China and India is unlikely, the risk remains significant due to unresolved territorial disputes, growing military capabilities, and the potential for miscalculation. The Quad plays a vital role in balancing this risk, but its effectiveness depends on the quality of its policies, diplomatic engagement, and public communication. The document calls for proactive and coordinated efforts to ensure that the Quad remains a reliable and supportive alliance in the face of Chinese aggression.