世界银行-隐藏资产占GDP的21_：来自阿根廷的证据（英）-2023.12-59页_4mb

Report Summary: Revealing 21% of GDP in Hidden Assets -Evidence from Argentina-

This analysis examines the impact of Argentina's 2016 tax amnesty and subsequent tax reforms on tax evasion, compliance, revenue collection, and tax progressivity. The key findings are:

Asset Disclosure and Enforcement Impact

1. Argentina’s 2016 tax amnesty resulted in the disclosure of $117 billion in hidden assets.

   • This equates to 21% of GDP.
   • Over 80% of undisclosed assets were held abroad, primarily in the US, Switzerland, Uruguay, and the British Virgin Islands.

2. The amnesty significantly increased:

   • The proportion of Argentines reporting foreign assets (tripling the number of filers).
   • The value of foreign assets declared (quadrupling from Arg$250bn to Arg$1.25tn).
   • Capital income tax collections (tripled).

Concentration and Effects on Top Earners

1. Offshore tax evasion was concentrated among the wealthiest:

   • The top 0.1% of the population accounted for ~90% of the value increase in disclosed assets.
   • Wealth reported by the top 0.1% nearly tripled between 2015 and 2019.

2. The 2019 wealth tax hike (2.25% on foreign assets vs. 1.25% domestic):

   • Enhanced tax progressivity, raising the effective tax rate for the top 0.1%.
   • Generated wealth tax revenue equivalent to ~0.8% of GDP (among the highest globally).
   • Suggests minimal capital repatriation in response to higher foreign tax rates.

Policy Implications

1. Argentina's 2016 package was effective due to:

   • Enhanced perceived threat of detection (automatic information exchange agreements).
   • Appealing tax incentives offered to amnesty participants.
   • High political salience via extensive publicity campaigns.

2. The study provides insights for developing countries:

   • Voluntary disclosure programs and enforcement policies can significantly boost revenue via progressive taxation.
   • Successful tax amnesties require credible detection enforcement, attractive tax incentives, political buy-in, and public awareness campaigns.