国际能源署-从化石燃料中提取甲烷的必要性-气候和健康效益评估（英）-2023.10-16页_1mb

Executive Summary

The report emphasizes that rapid reductions in methane emissions from fossil fuels, alongside deep cuts in CO2 emissions, are essential to meet global climate targets. Unmitigated methane growth could lead to a global temperature rise exceeding 1.6°C by 2050, even with reduced fossil fuel use. Over 75% of oil and gas methane emissions and half of coal emissions can be abated with existing, low-cost technologies. Methane mitigation in the fossil fuel sector is critical, with reductions providing nearly half the required abatement needed to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2030.

In the IEA's NZE scenario, policies phase out new fossil fuel developments, but even then, methane emissions drop insufficiently to align with climate goals without targeted measures. The NZE assumes all available methane abatement technologies are deployed by 2030, reducing emissions by 98% compared to 2022 levels. Without such action, global temperatures could rise by 1.6°C by 2050, increasing risks of irreversible climate damage.

Economic analyses show that methane abatement measures have low or negative costs in many cases, with captured methane often generating revenue. Total investment required for oil and gas mitigation by 2030 is less than 2% of industry net income in 2022, but low- and middle-income countries may need concessional financing. Larger investments are needed due to insufficient regulations, weak policies, and national oil companies in many regions.

Health and economic benefits are substantial, including avoiding nearly 1 million premature deaths, 95 million tonnes of crop losses, and USD 260 billion in economic gains by 2050 under the NZE scenario. Methane reduction also decreases ozone pollution, which exacerbates health issues and crop damage.

The report recommends immediate policy action to accelerate methane abatement, including leak detection programs, bans on venting, and incentives for captured methane utilization. Strengthening data collection and transparency through international cooperation is also crucial.

Main Findings and Recommendations

• Climate Impact: Methane is the second-largest driver of global warming after CO2, and its atmospheric lifetime is shorter (about 12 years) but highly potent. Immediate reductions are needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.

• Abatement Potential: Over 80 Mt of methane from fossil fuels can be avoided by 2030 using existing technology, mostly at low or negative cost. Fossil fuels hold the largest reduction potential.

• Emissions Trajectories: Different scenarios (STEPS, APS, NZE) show varying levels of mitigation. Full methane abatement reduces temperatures by up to 0.1°C by 2050 compared to no action.

• Health and Economic Benefits: Abatement prevents premature deaths, crop losses, labor hours lost, and generates significant economic returns (USD 260–650 billion by 2050). Benefits accrue quickly, with nearly half of health impacts realized by 2030.

• Policy Recommendations: Governments should enforce leak detection standards, eliminate routine flaring, and provide financing for developing regions. International cooperation is critical for scaling up efforts.

Conclusion

Reducing methane emissions from fossil fuels is a high-yield climate strategy with co-benefits for health and food security. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals requires urgent, targeted action supported by strong policies and investments.