20140717-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil_Gas_14页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 17 July 2014
Core Content
This summary outlines the key developments and market analysis in the oil and gas sector across various regions, including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, as of 16 July 2014. It includes price movements, company news, analyst reports, and valuation comparisons.
Key Market Movements
- WTI Crude Oil increased by 1.2% overnight, closing at $101.20.
- Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR saw a 0.0% change, with a -21.4% monthly decline.
- China's crude apparent consumption increased by 6.6% in Jan-May 2014, reaching 214m tonnes.
- Shandong commercial crude stock decreased by 80k tonnes to 770k tonnes.
- Refining losses for Shengli crude refiners deepened to -CNY182/tonne from -CNY142/tonne.
- CNPC hit pay in its second well in the South China Sea, but the first well was disappointing.
- Chevron cut 200 upstream jobs in England as part of its restructuring.
Analyst Reports and Company Updates
- Ezion Holdings: Secured contracts worth USD269m, with a target price of SGD2.70. Maintain BUY.
- Nam Cheong Ltd: Optimism reinforced, target price raised to SGD0.55. Maintain BUY.
- UMW Oil & Gas Corporation: Secured a first JU drilling charter in Myanmar for USD51m. Target price MYR4.16.
- Sinopec: Restructuring update, no IPO in the immediate future. Target price HKD6.85, HOLD.
- Yinson Holdings: No surprises, target price adjusted to MYR3.03. Maintain BUY.
- Petron Corp: Full completion of RMP-2 expected by end of the month, target price PHP16.80. Maintain BUY.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Secured 2 EPCIC contracts worth MYR1.3b, with a target price MYR5.30. Maintain BUY.
- China Oil & Gas (initiation): Initiated with NEUTRAL view. BUY on PetroChina and NewOcean Energy, HOLD on CNOOC.
- PetroChina: Target price HKD11.50, expected to benefit from the W2E pipeline sale.
- NewOcean Energy: BUY with target price HKD8.88, focusing on auto LNG growth.
- CNOOC: HOLD with target price HKD14.34, cautious on short-term earnings.
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 900 T/O (USD) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE % | P/B (2014E) | P/B (2015E) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.18 | 11.50 | 225.3 | 83.0 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.0 | |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.29 | 6.85 | 97.6 | 74.4 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.1 | |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.48 | 14.34 | 77.6 | 83.2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 | |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 416.10 | NR | 59.2 | 19.2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 18.1 | 1.9 | 2.8 | |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 989.70 | NR | 53.2 | 72.3 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 344.55 | 443.00 | 10.9 | 17.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 23.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 590.80 | NR | 7.1 | 19.2 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 406.05 | NR | 2.3 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 0.9 | 2.9 | |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.26 | 16.80 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 15.3 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 6.29 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 67.75 | 87.00 | 9.5 | 25.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 5.1 | |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 109,000 | 103,000 | 9.8 | 1.9 | 16.3 | 15.1 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 34.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 15.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
Analyst Contacts
- Hong Kong / China: Howard Wong (howardwong@kimeng.com.hk)
- India: Jigar Shah (jigar@maybank-ke.co.in)
- Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah (pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id)
- Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung (tjiaw@maybank-ib.com)
- Philippines: Bianca Solema (bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com), Laura Dy-Liacco (laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com)
- Singapore: Yeast Chee Keong (yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg)
- Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai (sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th)
- Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn), Truong Quang Binh (binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn)
Main Themes
- China's Energy Reform: Phase II is underway, with a focus on natural gas liberalization, unconventional gas production, and natural gas vehicles.
- Upstream Challenges: CNPC's drilling results were mixed, and Chevron is restructuring.
- OSV Sector: Operators remain optimistic about long-term fundamentals but cautious about short-term headwinds. Key players include Ezion, Mermaid Maritime, Nam Cheong, and Vard.
- Valuation: Asian oil and gas companies show varied valuations, with some showing potential for growth and others being held due to stretched valuations or lack of immediate earnings improvement.
Conclusion
The oil and gas market in the Asia-Pacific region is marked by both opportunities and challenges. While China's energy reforms present long-term growth prospects, short-term issues such as refining losses and restructuring are affecting some companies. Analysts maintain a BUY stance on several firms due to their growth potential and positive outlook, while others are HOLD or NEUTRAL due to valuation concerns or market uncertainties.
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