2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_West_African_Economic_and_Monetary_Union_Discussions_with_Regional_Institutions_58页_8mb

Summary of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Staff Report and Executive Director's Statement

Core Content

This document is a staff report and Executive Director's statement prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on discussions with regional institutions of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). It provides an assessment of the economic and financial situation of the WAEMU countries in the context of Article IV consultations. The report includes key findings on economic policy responses, fiscal and monetary coordination, external stability, and financial sector reforms, and outlines challenges and recommendations for the future.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Policy Responses

• Economic Impact of the Global Crisis: The WAEMU experienced a relatively mild economic shock in 2009, with a 1% slowdown in growth and inflation below 2%. This resilience was attributed to favorable terms of trade, Côte d'Ivoire's post-conflict recovery, and donor support in Togo.
• Fiscal Expansion: Governments across the Union increased spending in 2009, even before the global crisis, due to subsidies for food and fuel, pre-election spending, and capital expenditures. This led to an increase in fiscal deficits, with the zone-wide deficit rising to 3.7% of GDP in 2009.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The Union is expected to pursue modest fiscal retrenchment in 2010. However, risks remain, including lower-than-expected tax revenues, increased public wage bills, and steep capital spending in some countries.
• Monetary Policy: The BCEAO adjusted its monetary policy to control inflation and support growth, lowering its refinancing rate and injecting liquidity to support banks during the financial crisis. It also reduced reserve requirements to improve liquidity conditions.
• Inflation Targeting: The BCEAO aims to keep inflation below 2%, in line with the ECB. However, inflation volatility remains higher in WAEMU due to the higher share of food in the CPI basket.
• Domestic Arrears: A significant accumulation of domestic arrears (estimated at CFAF 1,400 billion or 4.3% of WAEMU GDP) threatens financial sector stability. The BCEAO and WAEMU institutions have taken exceptional measures, such as lending governments the value of SDR allocations and refinancing government bonds, to address the issue.

Regional Coordination and Institutional Reforms

• Liquidity Management: The WAEMU authorities have improved liquidity coordination by adopting government bond issuance plans and review mechanisms for sharing experiences.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): Weak budget execution and controls have contributed to arrears accumulation. The WAEMU commission has introduced PFM reforms, including six regional guidelines, with implementation expected to be completed by 2016.
• Fiscal Convergence: Despite efforts, fiscal convergence is not well achieved. Most countries do not meet convergence criteria, including basic fiscal surplus. The new BCEAO statutes now ban direct financing of governments, imposing indirect constraints on fiscal policy through refinancing limits.
• Fiscal Discipline: The BCEAO cannot enforce fiscal discipline alone. Peer reviews and budget transparency are essential to align national fiscal policies with regional objectives.

External Stability

• Exchange Rate: The real effective exchange rate (REER) has modestly appreciated since 1994, with a 27% increase by the end of 2009. While the overvaluation is not extreme, it ranges from 5.1% to 7.7%, based on different estimation methods.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account (CA) deficit has been growing, reaching 6.6% of GDP in 2009. It is projected to average 7.1% over 2010-2014.
• External Sustainability: The CA deficit is being financed by capital inflows, including FDI, without depleting international reserves. The exchange rate peg to the euro remains stable.

Financial Sector Reforms

• Financial Sector Soundness: The financial sector weathered the crisis but remains underdeveloped and poorly supervised.
• FSAP Recommendations: Member countries are urged to implement FSAP recommendations, including prudential ratios, risk-based frameworks, and financial crisis-resolution mechanisms.
• Liquidity Management: The BCEAO has introduced refinancing windows and reduced reserve requirements to improve liquidity conditions and monetary policy transmission.

Challenges and Recommendations

• Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stances: The key near-term challenge is to resist current spending pressures and tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures return.
• Competitiveness: The Union must improve structural competitiveness to boost growth and reduce poverty, focusing on cost of doing business and FDI attraction.
• Trade Policy: Regional integration with ECOWAS is a priority, while protectionist pressures should be resisted.
• Financial Stability: Continued implementation of FSAP recommendations is necessary to ensure financial sector resilience.
• Exchange Rate Policy: While exchange rate overvaluation is a concern, the Union is not at external instability risk due to capital inflows.

Conclusion

The report highlights the resilience of WAEMU economies in the face of the global financial crisis, but also identifies key challenges in fiscal and monetary coordination, financial sector development, and structural competitiveness. The BCEAO has taken proactive measures to support growth and maintain price stability, but fiscal discipline and effective PFM remain critical for long-term economic sustainability and regional integration.