2025-05-19-Jefferies-奥斯特（ORSTED）_评估价值的牛市_熊市情景_14页_549kb

Orsted Valuation Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of Orsted's valuation through bull, bear, and mid scenarios, highlighting the impact of various risks and potential catalysts on its stock price. The current market cap has fallen by 40% to $10bn, and the stock is trading near the lower end of the bull/bear range of DKK350/220, implying a significant amount of risk is priced into the stock.

Main Points

• Current Valuation: Orsted is currently trading near the lower end of the bull/bear range at DKK260, which is a -24% cut from the previous price target (DKK340).
• Risk Factors: The primary risk factors include the uncertainty around the Sunrise Wind project, which has not benefited from the US clean energy rally driven by the IRA, and potential further impairments.
• Valuation Scenarios:
  • Bear Scenario: Assumes cancellation of Sunrise Wind, resulting in a valuation of DKK220/share (-11% vs. current). This scenario includes a DKK20bn equity raise at DKK200/share to maintain FFO/ND above 30%.
  • Mid Scenario: Assumes no further negatives, with a valuation of DKK290/share. This reflects a slightly more bearish outlook on offshore wind.
  • Bull Scenario: Assumes material improvement in offshore wind sentiment, leading to a valuation of DKK350/share (+42% vs. current). This requires improvements in supply chain, investment certainty, and demand.

Key Information

• Key Risks: The uncertainty around Sunrise Wind and the potential impact of the US elections on the company's operations.
• Catalysts:
  • Potential Hornsea 3 disposal in the next 3-6 months.
  • Legal update on the ongoing case against Dominion's US offshore wind project on 23rd June.
• Financial Metrics:
  • EBITDA: Expected to grow from 2024A (31,959 MM DKK) to 2027E (31,949 MM DKK), with a slowdown in growth rate in the bear scenario.
  • EPS: Expected to increase from 2024A (-2.2 DKK/share) to 2027E (24.1 DKK/share), with a significant drop in the bear scenario to 12.9 DKK/share.
  • EV/EBITDA: Expected to decrease from 9.1x in 2024A to 7.1x in 2027E, with the bear scenario at 5.5x and mid scenario at 6.6x.
  • FFO/ND: Expected to remain above 30% from 2026 onwards in the mid and bull scenarios, but could fall below this threshold in the bear scenario.
• Impairments: Additional DKK5bn of impairments are assumed in the bear scenario, which affects the valuation and equity value.

Valuation Summary

• Bull Scenario: DKK350/share, assuming improved offshore wind sentiment and value creation.
• Mid Scenario: DKK290/share, assuming no further issues and stable FFO/ND.
• Bear Scenario: DKK220/share, assuming cancellation of Sunrise Wind and a distressed balance sheet requiring a DKK20bn equity raise.

Investment Thesis

• Rating: Hold.
• Price Target: DKK260, a -24% cut from the previous target.
• Valuation Drivers: The price target reflects a decrease in pipeline asset valuation and higher impairments.
• Outlook: The bull scenario is only achievable if offshore wind sentiment improves significantly, which depends on supply chain, investment certainty, and demand.

Sustainability

• Top ESG Issue: GHG emissions, with new statutory CO₂ disclosure requirements.
• Company Targets:
  1. <10gCO₂e/kWh by 2025.
  2. Total coal exit by 2023.
  3. Suppliers to be 100% renewable by 2025.
  4. Net zero in scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by 2040.
• Questions to Management:
  1. Biggest obstacle to achieving sustainability targets.
  2. Ensuring sustainability progress with supply issues.
  3. ESG in capital allocation.
  4. Policy support for decarbonization in operating regions.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The current valuation of Orsted is heavily influenced by the risks associated with its offshore wind projects, particularly Sunrise Wind. The price target of DKK260 reflects a more cautious outlook, while the bull scenario remains contingent on significant improvements in offshore wind sentiment. Investors are advised to monitor key catalysts and the company's ability to manage its balance sheet and sustain its sustainability goals.