2003年-世界发展银行全球_Analysis_of_the_Economics_of_Tobacco_in_Morocco_57页_430kb

Summary of the Economics of Tobacco in Morocco

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the economics of tobacco in Morocco, focusing on market trends, taxation policies, and the economic impact of increasing tobacco prices and taxes. It is part of the World Bank's Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper series and was prepared for the World Health Organization's Tobacco Free Initiative.

Main Points

1. Tobacco Market Overview

• Tobacco Sales: In 2000, tobacco sales in Morocco amounted to DH 8.3 billion (US$ 782 million), excluding smuggling (estimated at 8% of total consumption).
• Value Added: The tobacco industry contributed DH 7.5 billion in value added, representing 2.1% of GDP. Most of this value is derived from processing and distribution (99%), with only a marginal contribution from farming.
• Market Structure: The Régie des Tabacs is the state monopoly responsible for buying and selling tobacco products. It controls the entire distribution network.
• Farming: Approximately 7,000 producers are involved in tobacco farming, covering an average of 4,500 hectares of land. 70% of raw tobacco is imported, indicating limited domestic production.

2. Per Capita Tobacco Expenditure

• Trends: Per capita tobacco expenditure has increased significantly over the past 40 years, from DH 5.30 in 1959–60 to DH 191.00 in 1998–99.
• Urban vs. Rural: Urban per capita expenditure was 88% higher than rural in 1998–99. However, this gap overstates the actual difference in tobacco consumption.
• Income Distribution: The richest income group spent 5.5 times more on tobacco than the poorest. Tobacco expenditure share of total household expenditure is around 2.7%, except for the richest group, which had a 2.1% share.

3. Taxation and Price Policy

• Tax Composition: Taxes and levies account for 73% of the average retail price of cigarettes. Other components include:
  • Local and imported inputs: 8.4%
  • Capital remuneration and depreciation: 7.8%
  • Wages and marketing costs: ~5%
• Fiscal Contribution: Taxes on tobacco represent ~6% of government expenditure in Morocco.
• Effective Taxation: Effective tax rates vary by brand category, with higher rates generally associated with more expensive products.

4. Impact of Price and Tax Increases

• Elasticity Estimates:
  • Short-run price elasticity: -0.51 to -0.73
  • Long-run price elasticity: -1.36 to -1.54
  • Short-run income elasticity: +0.32 to +0.56
  • Long-run income elasticity: +0.87 to +1.04
• Simulation Results:
  • A 10% tax increase would result in a ~6% increase in tax revenue.
  • It would also lead to a ~3.3% decrease in cigarette consumption.
• Employment Impact: A decline in tobacco consumption would not significantly affect employment, as the industry generates few jobs and 70% of raw tobacco is imported.

5. Economic Implications

• Consumer Behavior: As consumers shift their spending to other goods and services, new employment and income opportunities may arise in other sectors.
• Health and Education Comparison: Tobacco expenditure has grown, but health and education spending has increased more rapidly. In 1998–99, health expenditure was ~370.99 DH per capita, and education expenditure was ~204.79 DH per capita, compared to ~194.99 DH for tobacco.
• Smuggling Concerns: The report argues that smuggling is more related to corruption than to high tax and price levels. Therefore, tax increases should not be avoided due to smuggling fears.

Key Information

• Tobacco is a normal good with positive but less than 1 income elasticity, indicating that as income rises, the proportion of income spent on tobacco decreases.
• Tax increases are effective in reducing tobacco consumption and increasing tax revenues, even in the face of smuggling.
• The economic impact of tobacco control is positive, with no significant loss of jobs and potential growth in other sectors.
• The Moroccan government has a monopoly on the tobacco industry through the Régie des Tabacs, which controls the entire supply chain from farming to distribution.

Recommendations for Further Research

• Better knowledge of consumption patterns by region, income level, and brand.
• Impact of privatisation on prices and taxation.
• Economic cost of tobacco-induced diseases to support public health policy decisions.

Conclusion

The study concludes that tax increases on tobacco are both effective and economically beneficial, with minimal negative impact on employment and the potential to generate new economic opportunities in other sectors. It highlights the importance of country-specific analysis for informed policy-making in tobacco control, especially in low- and middle-income countries where the burden of tobacco-related diseases is rising.