2024-10-27-IMF-央行数字货币与金融稳定_资产负债表分析与政策选择（英）_75页_1mb

Central Bank Digital Currencies and Financial Stability: Summary

Overview

• This working paper analyzes the financial stability implications of issuing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), focusing on balance sheet changes and policy choices to mitigate risks.

Key Findings

Balance Sheet Implications

• Adoption Scenarios: Financial stability effects vary depending on whether CBDC replaces cash or deposits, and the banking sector's reserve levels.
  • Replacing cash minimizes impacts as it doesn't expand the central bank's balance sheet.
  • Replacing deposits requires central bank balance sheet expansion (unless excess reserves offset the CBDC issuance), which increases financial stability risks.
• Preconditions: Effects depend on initial sectoral balance sheets (cash/deposits, reserve levels) and competitive bank responses.

Financial Stability Implications

• Adverse Effects can emerge in steady state, during adoption, or in crisis times, including:
  • Breaches of prudential ratios (LCR, NSFR, and leverage ratio)
  • Reduced bank profitability and credit provision
  • Increased reliance on wholesale funding and foreign currency exposure
  • Deepened bank-sovereign nexus and credit crunches
• The severity of effects depends on:
  • The volume of deposit replacement by CBDC
  • The availability of excess reserves in the banking system
  • Design choice to encourage CBDC as a means of payment rather than a store of value

Policy Options

• Design Features are the most promising for mitigating risks by focusing CBDC use for payments:
  • Holding caps (e.g., per-citizen limits)
  • Zero or negative remuneration
  • Interoperability with deposit-based payment systems
• Macroprudential Policy can support but cannot fully counter funding cost increases or liquidity pressures.
• Central Bank Market Operations (e.g., lending, asset purchases) help ensure liquidity but pose balance sheet risks if expanded in normal times.
• Mitigation is challenging due to heterogeneity among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) and varied national contexts.

Conclusion

• Expanding balance sheet is the primary concern in negative scenarios; thus, CBDC should be designed to minimize deposit displacement and limit hoarding.
• Policy should combine market operations, macroprudential tools, and design features to manage risks.
• The CBDC's design must prioritize its function as a payment instrument to avoid adverse financial stability effects.

Summary organized and formatted in markdown for clarity and professionalism.