城市中的电动公共汽车：朝着清洁空气和降低二氧化碳的目标行驶（英文版）_63页_2mb

Summary of Electric Buses in Cities

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the electric bus (e-bus) market, focusing on its growth, drivers, barriers, and cost considerations. It is authored by Bloomberg New Energy Finance on behalf of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, highlighting the role of e-buses in improving urban air quality and reducing carbon emissions.

Main Points

• Electric Buses and Environmental Impact: Electric buses are a key solution to urban air pollution and carbon emissions, especially as diesel buses dominate the global fleet. China has made significant progress in electrifying its bus fleet, with 18% of its buses being electric by 2017.

• Global E-bus Market:

  • The global e-bus market is growing, with China accounting for nearly 99% of all e-bus sales and deployments.
  • In 2017, there were around 385,000 electric buses globally, with the majority in China.
  • Europe and the U.S. have smaller e-bus fleets, with the U.K. having the largest in Europe but still less than 1% of its municipal fleet.

• Major E-bus Manufacturers:

  • China: Yutong, BYD, Zhongtong Bus.
  • Europe and U.S.: Proterra, Solaris, VDL Bus & Coach, Optare, Volvo Bus, Van Hool, ADL, etc.
  • Chinese manufacturers offer lower upfront costs, while European and U.S. manufacturers have stronger relationships with local municipalities and better expertise in integrating e-buses into existing infrastructure.

• E-bus Projects in the Pipeline:

  • Several cities, including Shenzhen, Shangqiu, Qingdao, and Beijing, have committed to large-scale e-bus deployment.
  • Shenzhen has fully electrified its municipal bus fleet, with over 16,500 e-buses by 2017.
  • In the U.S., cities like Stockton and Los Angeles are also moving toward e-bus adoption.

• Cost Considerations:

  • High upfront costs remain a major barrier to e-bus adoption, particularly in Europe and the U.S.
  • Battery leasing, joint procurement, and bus sharing are emerging business models to reduce initial investment.
  • E-buses are already more cost-effective in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO) for certain configurations and routes, especially in large cities where annual mileage is high.
  • Battery prices are expected to drop significantly, leading to TCO parity with diesel buses by the mid-2020s.

• Charging Configurations:

  • E-buses use various charging methods, including depot charging, pantograph charging, and wireless charging.
  • Charging infrastructure varies, and cities must consider the type of charging that aligns with their operational needs and fleet sizes.

• Barriers and Solutions:

  • Barriers: High upfront costs, uncertainty about battery residual value, and underdeveloped supply chains.
  • Solutions: Implementing battery end-of-life policies, using financing models like leasing and grants, and setting fleet electrification targets to drive manufacturer innovation.

Key Information

• Cost Parity: E-buses are expected to reach cost parity with diesel buses by 2030, with battery costs accounting for only 8% of the total e-bus price. If demand increases, this could happen as early as the mid-2020s.
• TCO Advantage: E-buses with longer routes and higher annual mileage are more cost-effective than diesel or CNG buses, with a 250kWh e-bus already showing a TCO advantage at $0.99/km.
• Financing Models: In Europe, e-bus projects are often funded through a mix of self-funding and grants. In the U.S., financing is more varied, with some cities adopting joint procurement and leasing.
• Battery Market: The global lithium-ion battery market is critical to e-bus development, with falling prices expected to significantly reduce TCO. Battery lifetime and warranty are also important considerations for cities.

Conclusion

Electric buses are becoming an increasingly viable option for urban public transport, especially in large cities with high annual mileage. While upfront costs and supply chain limitations remain barriers, new business models, falling battery prices, and supportive policies are helping to accelerate adoption. As the market matures, e-buses are expected to become more cost-competitive and widely adopted, contributing to cleaner air and lower carbon emissions in cities worldwide.