20211215-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook__December_2021_U.S._Hog_Imports_Higher_in_2021_While_Cattle_Imports_Fall_26页_1mb

Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry market outlook for the period December 2021 and beyond. It covers production forecasts, price trends, import and export data, and supply and use dynamics across various segments of the industry.

Main Points

Hog Imports and Production

• Live Hog Imports: U.S. live hog imports for 2021 are projected to increase by 25% compared to 2020.
• Feeder Hogs and Slaughter Hogs: Imports of feeder hogs under 50 kg rose by 16% year-to-date in 2021, while slaughter hogs over 50 kg increased by 103%, driven by a temporary processing plant strike in Canada.
• Pork Production: Fourth-quarter pork production is forecasted to increase to 7.2 billion pounds due to faster hog slaughter in November.
• Pork Prices: Live hog prices are expected to average $56 per cwt in the last quarter of 2021.
• Pork Exports: Pork exports in October declined by 8% compared to the previous year, and the fourth-quarter export forecast was reduced by 4% to 1.785 billion pounds.

Beef Imports and Exports

• Beef Imports: Beef imports in October were up 17% year-over-year to 293 million pounds, with significant increases from Mexico (42%), Brazil (21%), and Canada (16%).
• Beef Production: 2021 beef production forecast was raised to 27.895 billion pounds, reflecting higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
• Beef Exports: Exports in October increased by 9% to 281 million pounds, largely driven by strong shipments to Asian markets.
• Export Destinations: China became the third-largest export destination in October, surpassing combined shipments to Mexico and Canada.
• Export Forecasts: 2021 beef export forecast remains at 3.455 billion pounds, while 2022 is projected at 3.270 billion pounds, a 5% decline.

Dairy Market Outlook

• Milk Production: Milk production continued to decline in 2021, with October production at 18.515 billion pounds, 0.5% below 2020.
• Milk Cows: The number of milk cows has been decreasing since June 2021, reaching 9.4 million in October.
• Dairy Prices: Fourth-quarter all-milk price is projected at $20.45 per cwt, up $0.45 from the previous forecast.
• Dairy Exports: Dairy product exports in October were robust, with cheese, lactose, and butter leading the way.
• Dairy Imports: Imports in October were up 19 million pounds compared to 2020, driven by increased cheese and butterfat imports.

Poultry and Eggs

• Broiler Production: Fourth-quarter broiler production forecast was lowered, but 2022 production is expected to rise due to strong prices and hatchery data.
• Poultry Exports: Broiler export forecasts for 2022 were increased, while turkey production and exports were lowered for both 2021 and 2022.

Feed Prices

• Corn and Soybean Meal: 2021/22 corn price is projected at $5.45 per bushel, and soybean meal at $330 per short ton.
• Alfalfa Hay: October prices were $213 per short ton, up $4 from September and $44 from September 2020.

Key Information

• Import Trends: Hog imports surged due to a temporary processing disruption in Canada, while cattle imports fell by 19% year-to-date.
• Export Trends: Beef exports to Asia, especially China, saw significant growth, contributing to the overall rise in export volumes.
• Price Trends: Prices for beef, hogs, and dairy products are expected to rise in 2021 and 2022 due to strong demand and tight supply.
• Supply and Use: Milk cow numbers and production are declining, with a lag in response to price and cost changes.
• Market Access: Changes in U.S. market access, such as those in March 2020, have positively impacted exports to China.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The report highlights a mixed outlook for U.S. livestock and dairy markets in 2021 and 2022, with increased imports of hogs and beef, and strong export performance to Asian markets. Prices are expected to rise due to demand and supply constraints, while dairy production and cow numbers are projected to decline. Poultry and egg markets show some downward trends, and feed prices remain stable or slightly increased.