2008年-世界发展银行全球_Reducing_Undeclared_Employment_in_Hungary___Synthesis_Report_of_The_World_Bank_Study_43页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of the World Bank Study on Reducing Undeclared Employment in Hungary

Core Content

This report presents a synthesis of the World Bank study on reducing undeclared employment in Hungary, highlighting the challenges posed by the informal economy and recommending policy measures to address them. The study was conducted at the request of the Hungarian government and involves analysis of the informal economy's scale, motivations, and fiscal implications, alongside international best practices and potential reforms.

Main Viewpoints

Informal Economy as a Challenge: The informal economy is a significant issue in Hungary, with estimates suggesting it accounts for between 15% and 25% of the total economy. It is characterized by both "black" (completely unregistered) and "gray" (partially unregistered) employment.
Fiscal Impact: The informal economy results in substantial fiscal losses for the government, which is already facing a large deficit and debt burden. It also limits the ability to lower tax rates, as the narrow tax base reduces the scope for tax cuts that could incentivize formalization.
Policy Approach: The study recommends a dual strategy of "sticks" (enforcement and penalties) and "carrots" (reforms to improve incentives for formal economic activity). It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to avoid pushing informal actors further into the hidden economy.

Key Information

1. Scale and Composition of the Informal Economy

Measurement Uncertainty: There is uncertainty in measuring the informal economy, but it is known to be significant in Hungary.
Informal Employment: Roughly one-fifth of all employed people in Hungary are engaged in unregistered work.
Regional Variations: Central Hungary has the highest rate of undeclared employment at 24%, accounting for 40% of total informal employment.
Sectoral Trends: The construction and personal service sectors have high rates of informal employment. In agriculture, services, and construction, informal employment accounts for about 50% of total employment.

2. Motivations for Informal Work

Taxes as a Primary Factor: High taxes and social contributions are the main reasons individuals and businesses avoid formal registration.
Social Acceptability: In Hungary, informal work is more socially acceptable than in most EU countries, possibly due to perceptions of unfair and ineffective public institutions.
Perception of Enforcement: Many people believe that significant tax evaders are unlikely to be caught, indicating a lack of trust in enforcement mechanisms.

3. Fiscal Challenge

Government Spending: Consolidated government spending in 2007 was 50% of GDP, with social benefits accounting for 18.2% of GDP (36.4% of total spending).
Deficit and Debt: Hungary's fiscal deficit has been a major concern since the mid-1990s, and the debt burden exceeds 60% of GDP.
Need for Fiscal Adjustment: The government must reduce the informal economy to improve fiscal sustainability and generate additional tax revenues.

Policy Recommendations

Reform Area	Recommendation
Taxes and Benefits	Reduce employer social insurance contribution.
	Eliminate or reform EVA and EKHO (after labor tax wedge has been significantly reduced).
	Introduce progressive real estate tax and (if needed), raise the VAT.
	Smoothen the rate structure of personal income by considering an intermediate rate.
	More gradual phase out of income-dependent social benefits, including employee tax credit and housing benefit.
	Remove minor taxes and eliminate loopholes and exemptions.
	Strengthen links between social insurance contributions and benefits, including capping employer pension contributions.
	Introduce a reemployment allowance or a partial earnings disregard for unemployment benefit recipients.
Business and Labor Market Regulations	Further simplifications in procedures for business start-ups.
	Ease requirements for property registration.
	Simplify licensing procedures.
	Ease restrictions on working time.
	Keep the basic minimum wage low.
	Consider feasibility of different approaches to differentiated minimum wages.
Enforcement	Increase penalty rates for tax evasion.
	Consider reforms to APEH's structure to combine functional and tax payer models.
	Consider consolidating the customs agency, local tax administration, and tax fraud into APEH.
	Review latest international best practices in labor inspection.
Public Information and Education	Implement campaigns with segmented communication plans.
	Educate the public on public finance.
	Involve social partners in the reform process.

Conclusion

The informal economy in Hungary poses a serious fiscal challenge due to its significant size and the high tax burden it implies. The government's fiscal adjustment program is crucial for reducing the deficit and debt, but success also depends on effective reforms to the tax and benefit system, business and labor market regulations, enforcement mechanisms, and public education. A balanced approach that combines both incentives and penalties is essential to achieve sustainable formalization of the economy.

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