2025-06-03-Jefferies-财政趋势意味着政府支出放缓；国防资本支出复合年增长率可能增长20_以上_11页_614kb

• Fiscal collections for FY25 were slower than expected, falling short by 1.4 percentage points, primarily due to weaker income and GST collections. Defense capex is projected to grow at 20%+ CAGR, potentially funded through fiscal adjustments, without significantly impacting overall government spending avoiding slippage in the 4.4% deficit target. Government capital expenditure beatesthe revised estimates for FY25, partly from increased infrastructure spending, but details show inefficiencies in execution.
• Defense capex has declined over the last decado, but expectations are for a rise to 1% of GDP by FY31, implying a 21-27% growth rate. Companies like Bharat Electronics (BEL) and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) are recommended as top defense picks, with BEL valued at 40x FY27E EPS based on a PT of Rs420, and HAL at 40x FY27E EPS based on Rs6475 PT.
• Risks include slower defense indigenisation for BEL and unsustainable cost controls; for HAL, no material benefit from global OEM tie-ups. Non-defense spending may be cut to fund defense increases, and tax revenue growth is below targets for FY26.

Key Fiscal and Defense Highlights:

• Tax Growth: FY25 collections grew 9.7% (missing revised estimates),with defense capex expected to increase by ~35% in FY26, helping to meet the ~Rs470bn disinvestment target.
• Economic Context: Higher RBI dividend and low oil prices offset tax shortfalls, supporting the government's fiscal stance, which maintains a 4.4% deficit for FY26 while boosting capital expenditure, especially in defense and infrastructure.