【戴德梁行】2025年东南亚房地产市场展望报告长期增长前景稳固_18页_7mb

Southeast Asia Economic and Property Market Summary (2025)

Core Content

Southeast Asia (SEA) continues to demonstrate strong economic resilience and long-term growth potential, despite rising global policy uncertainty, particularly from the United States' broad tariffs. While short-term growth forecasts may be affected by the global economic slowdown, the region's growth prospects remain intact due to its youthful demographics, expanding middle class, and developing infrastructure. In 2024, SEA's economy is projected to grow at 4.8% year-on-year (yoy), faster than the 3.9% growth in 2023.

Economic Growth Outlook

• Economic Resilience: SEA's economies have consistently outperformed initial growth forecasts, driven by strong domestic consumption, low unemployment, and robust foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Growth Drivers: Tourism recovery, increased exports, and FDI inflows have supported economic expansion. Manufacturing remains a key contributor to growth.
• 2025 Outlook: Economic growth is expected to moderate from 2024 levels, but overall indicators remain encouraging.

Major Economies in 2024

Long-Term Growth Projections

• GDP by 2030: Projected to reach $4.5 trillion, making it the world's fourth-largest economy.
• Middle Class Growth: Expected to grow from $172 million in 2010 to $472 million in 2030.
• Population Growth: Projected to increase from 654 million in 2018 to 726 million in 2030.
• Exports by 2031: Could surge to $3.2 trillion, a nearly 90% increase from current levels.
• Digital Economy: Expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, up from $263 billion in 2024.

Inbound Investments

• FDI Inflows: SEA continues to attract significant FDI, with manufacturing capturing 21.8% of total inward FDI in 2023.
• Key Sectors: Greenfield FDI in manufacturing has surpassed China as the preferred destination for OECD-based companies.
• Notable Investments:
  • Micron Technology: US$7 billion investment in semiconductor packaging in Singapore.
  • Indonesia: Record FDI in downstream metal, transportation, and telecommunications sectors.
  • Vietnam: Amkor Technology and LG Display expanded investments in semiconductor and manufacturing.

Real Estate Investment Sales (2024)

• Total Sales: Reached US$17.2 billion, a 16% yoy increase.
• Top Sectors:
  • Industrial: Dominant, with Singapore and Malaysia leading the way.
  • Office: Sales volumes dropped by more than 20% due to hybrid work trends.
  • Retail: Continued to attract institutional investors, with prime rents rising.
  • Hotel: Transaction volumes increased over 100% yoy, driven by tourism recovery and wellness trends.

Key Markets and Rents (2024)

Data Centre Market

• Investment Surge: Data centre investments in SEA reached US$3.2 billion in 2024, up over four times from the previous year.
• Market Trends: Despite the boom, challenges such as power and water availability persist, leading to higher prices for powered land and interest in brownfield redevelopment.
• Key Markets: Singapore, Johor, Bangkok, and Jakarta are emerging as strategic hubs for hyperscalers.

Hotel Investment

• Growth Drivers: Tourism recovery, MICE events, and medical tourism have boosted hotel investment.
• Wellness Trends: Increased demand for affordable wellness experiences and medical tourism has driven interest in destinations like Thailand, Bali, and Vietnam.
• Market Recovery: Visitor arrivals are approaching pre-pandemic levels, with Singapore at 87% and Thailand at 60% of pre-pandemic levels.

Office Market

• Supply Pressure: Office investment sales volumes dropped by more than 20% in 2024 due to hybrid work trends.
• Rental Growth: Office rents have steadily increased across most markets due to rising operating costs and limited supply.
• Key Markets: Singapore and Jakarta are expected to see significant rental growth over the next few years.

JS-SEZ Agreement (2025)

• Overview: The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) was signed in January 2025, aiming to enhance cross-border connectivity and attract global investments.
• Key Zones:
  • Zone B: Manufacturing, business services, digital economy, education, health, tourism.
  • Zone C: Manufacturing, energy, logistics.
  • Zone D: Manufacturing, energy, logistics.
  • Zone E: Manufacturing economy, education, logistics, tourism.
  • Zone F: Manufacturing, business services, digital economy, education, energy, food security, health, logistics, tourism.
  • Zone G: Financial services.
  • Zone H: Manufacturing, energy, logistics.
  • Zone I: Education, food security, health, tourism.
• Benefits: The agreement is expected to drive new property demand in both Malaysia and Singapore, with a focus on leveraging Singapore's global finance and logistics capabilities and Johor's competitive land, labour, and energy costs.
• Tax Incentives: A 5% special corporate tax rate for up to 15 years for companies investing in qualifying sectors.
• Job Creation: Expected to create 20,000 jobs.

Property Market Impact

• Industrial Demand: Increased due to manufacturing and export growth, with a surge in industrial investment sales.
• Redevelopment Opportunities: Companies relocating parts of their value chain to Johor may seek to divest or lease out existing premises in Singapore, leading to redevelopment and asset enhancement opportunities.
• Spill-over Effects: Industrial demand growth is expected to have positive effects on retail and residential sectors in Malaysia and Singapore.

Conclusion

Southeast Asia remains a dynamic and attractive region for investment, supported by its economic resilience, growing middle class, and strategic location. While short-term challenges such as global trade uncertainty and policy changes may affect growth, the long-term outlook remains positive. The region is expected to continue attracting FDI, especially in manufacturing and data centres, and its real estate markets are poised for sustained growth, particularly in industrial and logistics sectors. The JS-SEZ agreement is set to further enhance the region's appeal and drive new investment opportunities.