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Flash Economics Summary: Concerns About US Banks

Core Content

This document analyzes the current state of various credit types in the United States and evaluates whether there are grounds for concern regarding the solvency of borrowers and the potential impact on US banks. It focuses on corporate credit, commercial and residential mortgage loans, and consumer credit, particularly credit card debt and auto loans.

Main Components of Credit in the US

1. Corporate Credit

• Outstanding Credit: Lower than in 2008.
• Default Rate: Slight increase, indicating some concerns.
• Profitability: Declining, as shown by profits after tax, interest, and dividends as a percentage of nominal GDP.
• Conclusion: While corporate credit is not at a historically high level, the combination of rising default rates and declining profits suggests a potential risk.

2. Commercial Mortgage Loans

• Loan Scale: High, with significant outstanding amounts.
• Default Rate: Remains very low despite high commercial real estate prices.
• Real Estate Prices: Very high, but not necessarily indicative of a default risk.
• Conclusion: Although real estate prices are elevated, the default rate on commercial mortgages is still low, suggesting limited immediate risk to banks.

3. Residential Mortgage Loans

• Loan Scale and Growth: Increasing, with a notable rise in household mortgage loans.
• Default Rate: Starting to show a slight increase, which is a concern.
• House Prices: Not abnormally high, but the trend in defaults indicates a potential shift.
• Conclusion: Residential mortgage defaults are beginning to rise, signaling possible future challenges for banks.

4. Consumer Credit

• Credit Types: Credit card debt and auto loans are the two sensitive components.
• Default Rates: Auto loan defaults are rising sharply, while credit card defaults remain a concern.
• Growth: These types of credit are growing rapidly.
• Conclusion: Consumer credit, especially auto loans, is showing signs of increasing default risk, which could impact banks.

Potential Impact on US Banks

• Securitisation Levels: Currently low, which means banks retain more risk from loan losses.
• Estimated Annual Losses: USD 63 billion before recovery, with the following breakdown:
  • Corporate Credit: USD 12 billion
  • Household Mortgage Loans: USD 42 billion
  • Auto Loans: USD 9 billion
• Bank Profits and Equity: Profits are USD 100 billion annually, and equity capital is USD 1,250 billion.
• Conclusion: The potential annual losses of USD 63 billion are not insignificant compared to banks' profits and equity, indicating a real risk to financial stability.

Key Findings

• Solvency Deterioration: At the end of the growth cycle, there is a noticeable deterioration in US borrowers' solvency, particularly in corporate credit, household mortgages, and auto loans.
• Risk Concentration: The low level of securitisation means banks are more exposed to loan losses, making the potential USD 60 billion in losses a significant concern.
• Market Implications: The document highlights that while some credit types are performing well, others are showing troubling trends that could affect the banking sector.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is confidential and not to be disclosed to third parties without prior consent.
• No liability is accepted for any use or distribution of the document.
• Natixis is regulated by various authorities, including the ECB, ACPR, FCA, and others in different jurisdictions.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and do not constitute a financial analysis or personalized investment recommendation.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the US banking sector is currently not in immediate danger, the signs of deteriorating borrower solvency across multiple credit types, combined with low securitisation, could pose a significant risk. The potential annual losses of USD 63 billion are a cause for concern, especially when compared to the banks' profitability and capital levels.