2011年-世界发展银行全球_Philippines_Quarterly_Update_June_2011___Generating_More_Inclusive_Growth_48页_1mb

Summary of the Philippines Quarterly Update (June 2011)

Core Content

The Philippines Quarterly Update for June 2011 provides an overview of the country's economic developments and policy changes over the past three months. It highlights key areas such as output and demand, employment and poverty, balance of payments and external debt, financial markets, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. The report also includes a Special Focus section that delves into poverty, the services sector, and the national accounts revisions. The goal is to assess the implications of these developments for the future outlook of the Philippines.

Main Economic Developments

Output and Demand

• The Philippine economy expanded at a steady rate of 4.9% in Q1 2011, following a slowdown since mid-2010.
• Investment was a key driver of growth, with the investment-to-GDP ratio increasing from 15.6% to 20.5% due to improved classification of items such as military goods.
• Private consumption remained resilient, contributing 3.4 percentage points to GDP growth.
• Industry was the main contributor to growth on the supply side, with manufacturing, mining, and construction showing strong performance.
• Agriculture rebounded with 4.2% growth, supported by favorable weather conditions.
• Services sector growth slowed, with trade and banking sectors experiencing notable declines.

Balance of Payments and External Debt

• The balance of payments (BoP) surplus in Q4 2010 reached US$7.9 billion, four times higher than in Q4 2009.
• Current account surplus decreased to 4.2% of GDP due to a widening trade deficit.
• Foreign exchange reserves exceeded external debt, reaching US$68.8 billion in May 2011, covering 602% of short-term debt and 10.6 months of imports.
• Remittances continued to flow in, reaching US$4.6 billion in Q1 2011, but at a slower growth rate compared to 2010.

Financial Markets

• Liquidity remained ample, with the Philippines issuing US$1.5 billion in global bonds in March 2011, setting a new 15-year benchmark.
• The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) reached a six-month high in May, driven by foreign investment and positive market sentiment.
• Sovereign spreads increased in Q1 2011, reaching 184 bps in March, the highest since October 2010.
• The yield curve steepened due to increased liquidity and inflation concerns.

Monetary Policy

• The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised policy rates twice in 2011 to curb inflationary pressures, but maintained an accommodative stance.
• Key policy rates were increased by 50 bps, reaching 4.5% for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 6.5% for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility.
• Real policy rates remained negative since mid-2009, and inflation expectations were well-anchored, keeping headline inflation within the BSP target range of 3-5%.
• Core inflation rose to 3.7% in May, with fuel prices increasing but staple product prices like rice remaining stable.

Fiscal Policy

• The National Government (NG) fiscal balance improved significantly, posting a surplus in January-April 2011, down from a 1.5% deficit in 2010.
• The deficit is projected to decrease from 3.5% of GDP in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011.
• Most of the improvement was due to reduced government expenditures, while revenue mobilization remains a challenge.
• Tax effort is 0.8 percentage points below GDP, and NG debt to GDP is 3.5 percentage points lower than in 2010.

Prospects

• The growth forecast for 2011 remains at 5.0%, and for 2012 at 5.4%.
• Investment is expected to continue growing, while consumption will be supported by strong wage growth in formal sectors.
• The current account surplus is projected to narrow due to expanding trade deficits and slower remittance inflows.
• The impact of Middle East turmoil on the Philippines is expected to be modest, as most Filipino workers are not in the affected areas.
• Japan's economic disruptions had a short-term negative impact on Philippine electronics exports, but the medium-term effect is expected to be small.

Special Focus

Poverty and Inequality

• Poverty has been increasing again, with self-rated poverty incidence rising to 51% (10.8 million households) in March 2011, up from 43% in March 2010.
• Hunger incidence also increased, reaching 20.5% (around 3.4 million families), close to the record high of 21% from December 2009 to June 2010.
• Poverty trends show a steady rise from 24.9% to 26.5% between 2003 and 2009, despite improvements in income distribution and labor productivity.

Services Sector

• The services sector is the largest in the Philippines, contributing to most of the growth in the 2000s.
• Private services are the main source of employment growth, now accounting for around 50% of total employment.
• Labor productivity in services has improved but is still well below that of manufacturing.
• Investment climate factors such as red tape, informality, quality, innovation, and skills are important determinants of aggregate labor productivity.

National Accounts Revisions

• The revised GDP series (1998-2010) showed a nominal GDP increase of 6%, leading to lower fiscal statistics as a percentage of GDP.
• The revised GDP growth estimates led to a different distribution of growth contributions across sectors.
• The trade balance is expected to return to large deficits as exports slow and imports remain strong.

Key Information

• The Philippines has moved to a new 'normal' with more stable and robust growth.
• Structural weaknesses in the labor market persist, with high underemployment and weak formal employment.
• Fiscal consolidation is ahead of expectations, but revenue mobilization remains a key challenge.
• Monetary policy is accommodative, with real policy rates still negative.
• The services sector is a major driver of growth and employment, but productivity in this sector is lower than in manufacturing.
• The 2011 National Accounts Revisions have altered GDP growth trends, particularly between 2002-2007 and 2000-2010.
• The Philippines is on a more inclusive growth path, but poverty and inequality remain persistent issues.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for continued reforms and additional resources to ensure more inclusive growth. While the economy is showing positive signs, structural challenges in employment and poverty reduction remain. The Philippines Development Plan aims to increase revenues by 4 percentage points of GDP by 2016, through improved tax efficiency, higher equity, and simplification of the tax system.