20231129-招商期货-基本金属月报_盘面分化_等待共振_55页_2mb

Summary of Basic Metal Monthly Report

Report Date: November 29, 2023
Researcher: Ma Yun

This month's basic metals market shows significant differentiation across key varieties, with overseas markets generally stronger than domestic ones. The primary driver is a combination of global macroeconomic factors, including weakening U.S. economic data (e.g., weaker-than-expected housing sales and manufacturing PMI), a strong European PMI, and a relatively weak U.S. dollar. Domestic stimulus efforts have more impact on black metals rather than basic metals.

Market Views by Variety:

• Copper: Prices are strongest due to higher financial attributes and strong domestic demand with high spot premiums. The domestic market remains supported by policy expectations and regional high premiums, contributing to upward pressure.
• Aluminum: Inventory reduction is now confirmed, suggesting a stabilization or potential uptrend in prices. Supply and demand are both weakly positioned, but the weekly trend supports a recovery.
• Zinc: Facing supply excess pressure, with increased production and inventory building leading to downward prices. Despite some demand from galvanization, market sentiment is bearish due to global supplies.
• Tin: Experiencing downward pressure amid weak demand fundamentals. Prices have fallen significantly, but downside appears limited to around 200,000 yuan after reaching oversold levels.

Key Strategies:

Recommend maintaining a bullish stance overall. For short-term trading, expect continued differentiation and consolidation due to occasional policy vacuums and data-driven market swings. Focus on varieties like copper which benefit from macro trends, while avoiding risks in zinc and tin. Specific positions should align with the views on copper strength and the potential for other metals to stabilize if policy data improves.

Key Events to Monitor:

• China PMI data
• U.S. PCE data
• Federal Reserve official statements
• Weekly market updates for resumed data releases

Key Risks:

• Unexpected strength in the U.S. dollar
• Missed domestic stimulus expectations
• Ongoing slower global economic growth impacting demand

Overall, the market awaits new data to provide clearer signals for metal movements, potentially leading to better convergence or diverging further based on policy outcomes and global economic trends.