20251208-瑞达期货-塑料产业日报_1页_464kb

Summary of Plastic Industry Daily Report (December 8, 2025)

Key Market Data

• Futures Prices: Polyethylene (PE)主力合约收盘价6643元/吨，环比下跌31元；1月、5月和9月合约价格分别为6643元/吨、6708元/吨和6754元/吨，环比跌幅分别为-31元/-34元/-34元。
• Market Activity: Trading volume decreased to 234,875 contracts, down 47,412 units;持仓量 fell to 374,193 contracts, down 19,347 units.
• LLDPE Spot Prices:华北地区均价6713.04元/吨，环比下跌34.78元；华东地区均价6966.19元/吨，环比下跌29.52元；基差为70.04，环比下降3.79。
• Crude Oil and Upstream:乙烯(CFR东南亚)中间价60.05美元/吨，环比上涨0.4；乙烯(CFR东北亚)中间价563.5美元/吨，环比上涨3.75。
• Industry Capacity: National PE capacity utilization rate 84.05%，环比下降0.46%；包装膜和管材开工率分别为50.22%和31.83%，环比小幅下降或持平。
• Downstream Demand: Agricultural film and packaging film开工率环比分别下降0.92%和0.5%；制品总体开工率小幅下降。
• Inventory: Factory inventory decreased slightly, while social inventory rose, leading to a small overall increase in stock.
• Cost and Profit:Oil-based LLDPE costs decreased but losses widened; coal-based LLDPE costs fell, with profits improving marginally.

Key News and Events

• Production data shows PE output declined slightly, influenced by plant maintenance and restarts (e.g., ZQ plant stoppage, SS and MS maintenance).
• Inventory levels in samples decreased slightly, but social inventory increased from prior weeks.
• Industry outlook includes the upcoming launch of a low-density PE plant, adding supply pressure.

Market Views

• Short-term, PE prices are expected to fluctuate in a range of 6600-6750元/吨, supported by cost factors but pressure from increased supply.棚膜 demand slowdown and cost volatility from geopolitical tensions (e.g., US refineries) may influence trends.

Source: Based on third-party data; for reference only. Market investments involve risks.