2001年-世界发展银行全球_Petroleum_Fiscal_Issues_and_Policies_for_Fluctuating_Oil_Prices_in_Vietnam_108页_5mb

报告摘要

Summary of Petroleum Fiscal Issues and Policies for Fluctuating Oil Prices in Vietnam

Core Content

This report, prepared by the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP), addresses the challenges and opportunities facing Vietnam's upstream oil and gas sector in the context of fluctuating oil prices. It provides an analysis of existing and proposed fiscal policies, explores the competitiveness of Vietnam's oil contracts, and outlines options for improving flexibility in the fiscal terms of petroleum agreements. The report was commissioned by the Government of Vietnam and Petrovietnam to support the development of a more attractive and adaptable framework for private sector investment in the energy sector.

Main Views

1. Vietnam's Oil and Gas Sector Overview

Vietnam's continental shelf remains largely unexplored compared to its neighbors such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Recent oil and gas discoveries have reinvigorated interest in exploration.
Crude oil exports are the country's largest foreign exchange earner, and natural gas reserves offer an environmentally clean source of domestic energy and potential for export.

2. Need for a Competitive Fiscal Framework

Vietnam must provide the right framework for private sector development to realize the full potential of its oil and gas resources.
Fiscal incentives, such as acceptable terms in production sharing contracts, are essential to encourage hydrocarbon exploration and production.
An efficient and transparent system for contract management and exploration licensing is required.
Gas pricing policies should be clear, consistent, and include special provisions for marginal fields.

3. Current Contract Models

Vietnam has historically used production sharing contracts (PSCs), joint venture contracts, and other models.
Under the tax-included model, Petrovietnam pays taxes on behalf of the contractor.
The subsequent Petroleum Law introduced tax-separate contracts, where contractors are responsible for paying certain taxes and royalties.
New joint venture models are also under consideration.

4. Impact of Fluctuating Oil Prices

When oil prices dropped to $12 per barrel in 1998, many fields became uneconomic.
Vietnam's fiscal terms do not adjust well to low oil prices, making it difficult to attract investment.
The country performs well at high oil prices but struggles with low ones, leading to a lack of long-term investment in marginal fields.

5. Recommendations for Fiscal Adjustments

Introduce a sliding scale cost limit to ensure cost recovery regardless of oil price fluctuations.
Reduce signature bonuses and adjust profit oil sharing to make small fields more attractive.
Keep production bonuses and royalties unchanged.
Modify tax calculation methods, including a general application basis for corporate tax.
Maintain the 15% participation rate in carried basis.
For gas, increase cost limits, reduce signature bonuses, and avoid carried interest in gas or gas-condensate projects.
Ensure clear and consistent gas pricing policies.

6. Other Key Issues

The value added tax (VAT) and unitization are important factors affecting investors' evaluations of the fiscal system.
The Petroleum Law and its implementation decree (1993 and 1996 respectively) define the legal framework for upstream activities, but they do not cover downstream operations.
Petrovietnam is the sole entity authorized to manage upstream activities and enter into contracts with international companies.

Key Information

Hydrocarbon Reserves

Vietnam has nine basins (five significant), with Cuu Long, Nam Con Son, and Malay-Thu Chu holding most of the hydrocarbon potential.
Discovered reserves are not fully appraised, and undiscovered potential is substantial but requires further exploration.
Proven oil reserves are about half of potential, and proven gas reserves are one-third.

Exploration and Development

Exploration has been limited, leading to uncertain resource estimates.
A minimum of 80–100 wildcat wells are needed to discover the potential.
An estimated $1 billion would be required for exploration in the Nam Con Son and Song Hong basins over seven years.
Additional $8 billion would be needed for development and infrastructure.

Bach Ho Field

The largest oil and gas field in Vietnam, located in the Cuu Long basin.
It has produced 355 million barrels of oil and 8.7 billion cubic meters of raw gas.
Daily production is 160,000 barrels of oil and 3.8 million cubic meters of associated gas.
Gas is used for power generation and is being flared.
Production is expected to decline after 2001.

Fiscal and Legal Framework

The Petroleum Law and its implementation decree define the terms of upstream contracts.
Tax-included contracts are currently in use, but tax-separate contracts are also being implemented.
The government has amended the Petroleum Law in June 2000 and the implementation decree in October 2000.

Conclusion

Vietnam needs to enhance its fiscal terms to be more competitive and flexible in the face of fluctuating oil prices. The report emphasizes the importance of dialogue with the industry, revising the legal framework, and adjusting fiscal policies to attract and sustain investment. The investment climate, particularly the fiscal terms, is a critical factor in the competition among countries for international investment in the petroleum sector.

Tables and Figures

Table 1.1: Potential Hydrocarbon Reserves

Nam Con Son Basin: 150 million barrels of oil, 205 million barrels of condensate, 4 billion cubic meters of associated gas, 158 billion cubic meters of nonassociated gas.
Cuu Long Basin: 1,300 million barrels of oil, 40 billion cubic meters of associated gas.
Malay Basin: 70 million barrels of oil, 13 billion cubic meters of associated gas.
Song Hong Basin: 200 billion cubic meters of nonassociated gas.
Other Basins: 2 billion cubic meters of nonassociated gas.
Total: 1,520 million barrels of oil, 205 million barrels of condensate, 57 billion cubic meters of associated gas, 360 billion cubic meters of nonassociated gas.

Figure 1.1: Relationship between Discovered Reserves and Exploration Drilling

A strong correlation exists between exploration activity and hydrocarbon discoveries.
Each exploration well yields an average of 27 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Figure 1.2: Oil Production from the Cuu Long Basin

Production is expected to peak in 2001–2002 as new fields come online.

Figure 1.3: Potential for Gas Production in Nam Con Son and Cuu Long Basins

These basins show great potential for gas production.

Boxes

Box 1.1: The Petroleum Law

Passed in 1993, with an implementation decree in 1996.
Covers upstream activities, but not downstream operations.
Assigns Petrovietnam the exclusive role in managing upstream activities.
Defines model contract provisions, contractor rights and obligations, and royalties, taxes, and fees.