2025-06-15-高盛-CI_T（CINT）_更新估值；探讨宏观风险_9页_599kb

CI&T (CINT) Research Update: June 16, 2025

Summary Overview

This report from Goldman Sachs Research updates its estimates for CI&T (CINT) based on revised macroeconomic and financial data, raising the 12-month price target to USD $6.80 from USD $6.00 due to a lower cost of capital, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The analysis highlights CI&T's resilient revenue guidance amid macro uncertainty and its relatively defensive market position in Brazil.

Key Estimates

• Revenues: Unchanged for 2025-2027 (e.g., 2025 revenue at $473 million, expectations range 9-15% growth).
• Adjusted EBITDA: Estimates remain stable, but 2025 earnings are lowered due to higher amortization and conservative tax assumptions.
• P/E Ratio: 12-month forward P/E at 17.2x for 2025, reflecting a 15.1% upside from current price of $5.91.
• Guidance Alignment: Short-term estimates align with revenue guidance, with at least 115.5 million USD revenue expected for Q2 2025.

Valuation

• Price Target: $6.80, based on a blended DCF model (enterprise value $977 million nominal-USD) and P/E approach (Q5-Q8 earnings $61 million at 14.5x multiple).
• Methodology: DCF uses a nominal-USD WACC of 10.2% and terminal growth of 4%, while P/E assumes normalized multiples relative to peers.
• Market Position: CI&T ranks 3rd in M&A likelihood (low acquisition risk) but scores well in percentile-based growth and financial metrics.

Key Risks and Defensive Strengths

• Upside Risks: High client concentration, sales execution, and macroeconomic shifts in key regions.
• Defensive Factors: ~45% Brazil revenue (insulated from US/Mexico trade discussions), conservative client mix, and AI-driven efficiencies.
• Neutral Outlook: Revenue guidance may be achievable due to its resilient service mix, but conservative assumptions on expenses limit upside potential.

Analysts and Contacts

• Analysts: Vitor Tomita, CFA; Milenna Okamura.
• Contact: Vitor Tomita (vitor.tomita@gs.com), Milenna Okamura (milenna.okamura@gs.com).
• Coverage: Neutral rating since September 3, 2024, with a focus on Latin America Technology, Media & Telecom.

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs recommends a Neutral stance with a $6.80 price target, emphasizing CI&T's ability to navigate macro volatility through its defensive revenue profile but noting capped upside due to conservative financial assumptions and macro uncertainties.