20260826-招银国际-卓胜微-300782.SZ-Transition_before_turnaround_maintain_HOLD_5页_1mb

Maxscend (300782 CH) Summary

Core Content

Maxscend (300782 CH) recently released its 1H26 financial results, which showed mixed performance. The company reported a revenue increase of 6.2% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB1.81bn, but the net loss widened to RMB371mn. In 2Q26, revenue reached RMB982mn, up 3.6% YoY and 18.7% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), but the net loss deepened to RMB226mn, both underperforming Bloomberg's consensus. Gross profit margin (GPM) dropped by 12.4 percentage points (ppts) to 16.4%, primarily due to low fab loading, depreciation, pricing pressure, and module ramp costs, despite a better sales mix.

Main Points

• Revenue and Earnings Trends:

  • Revenue for FY26E is expected to be RMB3,694mn, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous estimate.
  • Gross profit for FY26E is projected at RMB595mn, down 11.7ppts from the prior estimate.
  • Net profit for FY26E is forecasted at RMB-731mn, with a 64% YoY decline.
  • The target price (TP) has been reduced to RMB74.20, based on a 40x 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple, which is about 1 SD below the historical mean.

• Segment Performance:

  • RF Modules: Revenue increased 22.9% YoY to RMB929mn, raising its sales mix to 51%. This includes accelerated L-PAMiD shipments and Wi-Fi 7 scaling, with Wi-Fi 8 in small-volume shipments.
  • RF Discrete: Revenue fell 8.3% YoY to RMB824mn due to soft handset demand and inventory digestion.
  • Margins: Despite a better module mix, module GPM dropped 15.6ppts to 13.1%, and discrete GPM fell 10.5ppts to 17.8%. The company expects gradual margin recovery through volume growth, yield improvement, customization, and cost reduction.

• Fab Utilization and Costs:

  • Fab utilization remains a critical factor affecting earnings. Xinzhuo Fab revenue rose 43.8% YoY to RMB694mn, with a narrower net loss compared to 1H25.
  • The 12-inch fab has a monthly capacity of 9k wafers and operates at 50–60% utilization. The 6-inch filter line produces 15k wafers/month.
  • Utilization improved from 1Q26 and is expected to rise further in 2H26, though management does not anticipate a high FY26 level.

• Strategic Shift Toward Optical Interconnect:

  • Maxscend is transitioning its capabilities to optical and electrical chips for AIDCs, repurposing SOI and SiGe technologies.
  • The company is in collaboration for first-generation SiGe electrical-chip products, while the SiPho process platform is still being finalized.
  • The April placement of RMB3.46bn provides sufficient funding, but customer qualification and volume production are still distant goals.
  • No material near-term earnings contribution is expected from this new direction.

• Key Risks and Opportunities:

  • Upside Risks: Faster utilization recovery, stronger L-PAMiD wins, and earlier optical validation.
  • Downside Risks: Weak demand, slower qualification, and intensifying competition.

Financial Highlights

Shareholding and Performance

• Shareholding Structure:

  • WX HUIZHI UNITED INV: 10.3%
  • Feng Chenhui: 6.8%

• Share Performance:

  • 1-month: +6.8%
  • 3-months: -38.4%
  • 6-months: +0.1%

Key Financial Ratios

• Gross Profit Margin: Declined to 16.1% in FY26E, down 11.7ppts from previous estimates.
• Net Margin: Turned negative at -19.8% in FY26E, improving to 3.0% in FY27E.
• Operating Margin: Dropped to -12.9% in FY26E, improving to 5.2% in FY27E.
• EBITDA Margin: Fell to 4.2% in FY26E, rising to 22.7% in FY27E.
• ROE: Declined to -1.2% in FY27E, up to 1.3% in FY28E.

Liquidity and Capital Structure

• Current Ratio: Improved to 3.2 in FY26E, with a slight decline in subsequent years.
• Cash and Equivalents: Increased from RMB1,008mn in FY23A to RMB2,724mn in FY26E.
• Total Assets: Rose from RMB10,958mn in FY23A to RMB18,218mn in FY26E.
• Total Liabilities: Increased from RMB1,154mn in FY23A to RMB5,609mn in FY26E.

Analyst Ratings and Disclosures

• Analyst Certification: The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect personal opinions and that there are no conflicts of interest.

• CMBIGM Ratings:

  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
  • SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
  • NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant market benchmark.
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market benchmark.
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market benchmark.

• Important Disclosures:

  • CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
  • The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
  • Information is based on public data and may be subject to change.
  • CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.