2022-10-17-国际清算银行-全球供应链中断_演变_影响_展望（英）_9页_1mb

BIS Bulletin No. 61: Global Supply Chain Disruptions – Evolution, Impact, Outlook

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin examines the evolution, impact, and future outlook of global supply chain disruptions ("bottlenecks") since the onset of the pandemic. It highlights the persistent nature of these disruptions, their macroeconomic consequences, and the potential risks they pose to inflation and economic stability.

Main Points

• Global Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, but Remain Significant:
  The disruptions have been gradually easing, though unevenly across sectors and regions. They still remain far above historical norms, particularly in sectors like semiconductors.

• Supply Chain Complexity and Concentration Amplify Disruptions:
  The intricate and concentrated nature of global value chains (GVCs) has led to prolonged and severe macroeconomic impacts. Sectors such as semiconductors are especially vulnerable due to their central role and limited substitution possibilities.

• Disruptions Have Three Main Phases:

  1. Pandemic Lockdowns (2020): Initial disruptions caused by lockdowns led to supply freezes, inventory depletion, and coordination issues.
  2. Post-Pandemic Demand Surge (2021): A strong rebound in demand, especially in goods, outpaced supply capacity, causing severe bottlenecks.
  3. Recent Geopolitical Events (2022): The war in Ukraine and renewed lockdowns in China led to a third phase of disruptions, though less severe than the previous ones in many economies.

• Easing of Bottlenecks:

  • Supply chain pressure indices suggest pressures have peaked in late 2021.
  • Inventories are normalising, freight costs have halved, and delivery times have shortened in some regions.
  • However, the easing has been uneven, with some sectors (e.g., auto) still experiencing significant inventory shortages.

• Inflationary Impact of Bottlenecks:

  • Bottlenecks have contributed significantly to inflation, particularly in advanced economies.
  • In the US, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) has contributed over 1.5 percentage points to PCE inflation in Q2 2022.
  • Inflationary effects are more pronounced in GVC-intensive sectors, such as manufacturing and transportation.

• Persistent Risks to Inflation:

  • If bottlenecks persist, inflation could remain 1.25 percentage points higher than projected.
  • New shocks, such as geopolitical tensions or natural disasters, could re-intensify disruptions.
  • Demand-side shifts, like continued rotation from services to goods, may prolong or create new bottlenecks in the services sector.

• Structural Changes in GVCs:

  • Geopolitical tensions and restrictive trade policies have led to increased trade barriers.
  • Businesses are increasingly considering reshoring and automation to improve supply chain resilience.
  • These changes may slow the resolution of bottlenecks and alter the structure of GVCs in the long term.

• Macroeconomic Headwinds:

  • Labour shortages in some sectors persist, exacerbated by pandemic-related shifts in worker preferences.
  • Limited investment in fossil fuel energy due to climate change concerns could limit supply responsiveness.
  • These factors mean that even small disturbances could have significant macroeconomic consequences.

Key Information

• Supply Chain Pressure Indices: Show that pressures peaked in late 2021, with some easing observed.
• Semiconductor Sector: Serves as a prime example of how GVC concentration and technological specificity can amplify bottlenecks.
• Inflationary Effects: Vary by country and sector, with GVC-intensive economies experiencing stronger inflationary pressures.
• Future Outlook: A gradual resolution of bottlenecks is expected, but risks of prolonged or new disruptions remain.
• Policy Implications: The easing of bottlenecks is crucial for bringing inflation back to target, with implications for monetary policy and economic stability.

Conclusion

The Bulletin underscores the complex and interconnected nature of global supply chains and their significant role in shaping inflation and output dynamics. While some easing has occurred, the persistence and structural characteristics of GVCs mean that the impact of bottlenecks will continue to be felt for some time. Policymakers must remain vigilant and prepared for potential new disruptions and structural shifts in the supply chain landscape.