英文_高盛_宏观信贷观点持有模式（Karoui）_13页_624kb

报告摘要

Risk Premia Moderation: Policy shifts initially driving risk premia higher have softened, acting as a stronger-than-expected circuit breaker.
Spread Forecasts Adjustment: Revised tighter spread forecasts for 2025, but warn risk of further widening in Q3 due to stagflationary pressures from trade policies.
Economic Growth Outlook: Growth forecasts upgraded due to policy detente, resilient hard data, and softened financial conditions, but recession risks remain elevated.
Volatility Opportunity: Decline in volatility presents an opportunity to reset hedges.
Credit Market Recommendations:
- USD: Neutral to cautious stance due to potential recessionary risks.
- EUR: Shift to neutral allocation from overweight as macro outlook balances and valuation reverts to median.
- Foreign Participation: No structural shift tied to USD weakness; foreign demand driven more by global savings glut than currency.
- Agency MBS: Maintains preference due to valuation; tactical view favors middle shelf FN securities.
- Structured Credit: Focuses on quality segments (Non-QM RMBS, AAA consumer ABS) while cautioning lower-rated segments.
CRE Sector: Despite funding costs, sectors like multifamily and data centers show resilience; special servicing rates remain elevated.

Exhibit 1: Tighter forecast paths for USD and EUR credit spreads for 2025.
Exhibit 2: Volatility decline as an opportunity for resetting hedges.
Exhibit 3: Base yield dominance in IG market.
Exhibit 5: EUR/USD IG 5-year spread at 10-year median.
Exhibit 6: Foreign participation in USD corporate bonds not structurally tied to USD fluctuations.
Exhibit 8,9: IG dispersion remains low despite tariffs, due to policy uncertainty delaying reallocations.

Report based on current, publicly available information without guarantee of accuracy or completeness.
Analyst views are personal and not influenced by firm business considerations.
Forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

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