2025-06-04-Jefferies-盖沃（GEVO）_更新RNG路径上行模型_12页_462kb

USA Biofuels: Gevo Equity Research Update

Target Estimate Change

• Gevo reiterates its 2025 outlook but guides down ATJ-60 spending from $40mn.
• Jefferies maintains a HOLD rating and reduces the price target from $1.20 to $1.10 (-8%).
• 2025 EBITDA for RNG is revised to $14.6mn (within $9-18mn range), with ~23% attributed to retroactive LCFS credit application. Consolidated EBITDA trimmed to $14.9mn, slightly exceeding the lower $14mn of Gevo's own guidance, reflecting faster margin recouping than previously assumed.
• ATJ-60 project faces delays; financing closure pending DOE negotiations. Plant startup likely delayed by ~36 months post-finance close, impacting 2025 FID. Projected postponement until YE2025. ATJ-30, a smaller modularized SAF project, is prioritized for faster capital deployment, located near Gevo North Dakota which has CCS capabilities.
• Revised 2025 revenue estimate due to 1Q beat driven by Gevo North Dakota and increased LCFS credits. 2025 revenue outlook trimmed to $109mm from prior $112mm.

Company Description

• Provides biobutanol technology enabling biofuels for diesel/jet and renewable chemical production. Key assets include a RNG facility in Iowa and ongoing development of Gevo North Dakota (formerly Red Trail) ethanol plant with CCS.

Financials

• 1Q25 revenue of $29.1mn beat consensus ($26.4mn), primarily due to Gevo North Dakota revenue and higher LCFS credits from the provisional CI score approval.
• 2025 EBITDA forecasted at ~$14.9mn; pre-revenue Jevo North Dakota is expected to contribute ~$26mm EBITDA in 2025, pushing consolidated full-year EBITDA towards the higher end of $24-30mm. Crush margins are expected to recover quickly.
• RNG business valued at ~7.4x EV/EBITDA ('26E ~$17.4mm EBITDA) for the RNG business, given its permanent CI score (339 gCO2e/MJ) in California's LCFS program and monetization of 45Z biogas credits. Diluted risk assessment based on slow margin recovery in the first half.

Valuation

• Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology. Total enterprise value implied from '26 EBITDA estimates is ~$213mm, leading to a ~$1.10 price target (~7.6% downside from current price).
• Key valuation drivers: Permanent LCFS score for RNG granting a ~$34mm '25 tax credit under 45Z; anticipated Class VI permit; solid ethanol base.

Risks & Catalysts

• Downside Risks: Failure to secure NZ1 financing, significant cost overruns/implementation delays for NZ1, policy uncertainty impacting LCFS/RIN/45Z, inefficient operation or approval denial for RNG/ethanol facilities.
• Upward Catalysts: Successful closure of the $1.63bn DOE debt facility, successful NZ1 execution (on budget/schedule/tax credit generation), favorable future climate/rural development policies accelerating biofuel adoption, strong LCFS/RIN pricing.

Investment Thesis & Where We Differ

• Gevo is progressing SAF in 2025/2027 with various projects.
• Caution in near-term Catalysts
• Focus on de-risking new projects (ATJ-30)
• Potential P/E multiple compression, potentially driven by EBITDA multiple expansion if milestones are met.
• $1.10 PT based on a split valuation for RNG business (at a premium) vs. a more conservative corporate entity estimate ($0.29 implied for corporate entity based on 4.4x multiple). $2.40 upside scenario requires non-traditional expansion/tax credit monetization potential for NZ1.

Analyst Summaries

• Ailani: Jefferies analyst Dushyant Ailani covers Gevo, issuing a HOLD rating with a new price target of $1.10 (down from $1.20).
• Dumoulin-Smith: Reiterates fellow analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith's HOLD rating.
• Zimbardo: Maintains Paul Zimbardo's HOLD rating.
• Mutalemwa: Confirms Whitney Mutalemwa's coverage and ratings.

Summary
Jefferies lowers its 12-month price target for Gevo to $1.10 from $1.20, reflecting slightly lower 2025 EBITDA and revenue projections, though expectations for Gevo North Dakota are maintained at $26mm EBITDA in 2025. Key risks remain policy/navigation on carbon intensity scores and securing DOE financing, while strong execution in RNG and ethanol is a catalyst. The valuation is driven by a split assessment, giving a premium to the RNG/Iowa assets (due to permanent LCFS score and 45Z credits) while valuing the corporate entity more conservatively due to business seasonality and macro uncertainty.