20260909-西牛证券-赢家时尚-03709.HK-Demand-weakness_signals_broaden,_but_dividend_yield_and_lowvaluation_support_current_rating_5页_204kb
报告摘要
EEKA Fashion (03709.HK) Summary
Core Content
EEKA Fashion (03709.HK) is a fashion company that has experienced a decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2026, with revenue down 12.1% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders remaining roughly flat. However, the company has maintained a stable gross margin of 76.4% and continues to offer a high dividend yield, which supports its current share price.
Key Financial Performance
- 1H 2026 Revenue: RMB 2,727.1mn (-12.1% YoY)
- Gross Margin: 76.4% (down 0.03ppt YoY)
- Net Profit (attributable to shareholders): RMB 287mn (flat YoY)
- Net Profit (attributable to non-controlling shareholders): RMB 5.5mn (+293% YoY)
- Target Price: HK$8.20 (down from HK$10.66)
- Current Price: HK$4.72
- 52-Week Range: HK$4.53 – HK$10.63
- Market Cap.: HK$3.3bn
Main Points and Analysis
Revenue and Profit Trends
- Revenue has declined significantly in 1H 2026, with a YoY drop of 12.1%.
- Gross profit decreased slightly, but the gross margin remained stable at 76.4%.
- Net profit attributable to shareholders was flat, but the non-controlling share rose sharply due to changes in ownership structure.
Channel Strategy and Performance
- The company has been optimizing its sales channels, shifting from self-operated stores to distributors.
- Offline channel adjustments are shifting toward reliance on distributors, with a net reduction of 80 self-operated stores and an addition of 14 distributor stores.
- Online sales have shown improvement, particularly on Douyin and WeChat Video Channel, with blended online gross margin rising to 65.5%.
- However, VIP revenue declined by 35.8% YoY, indicating a challenge in high-end segments.
Brand-Level Divergence
- NAERSI revenue fell 18.6% YoY, attributed to a higher VIP weighting and a strategic pullback from low-margin channels.
- FUUNNY FEELLN gross margin dropped 5.5ppt to 57.3%, due to clearance inventory and a January controversy involving its brand ambassador.
- A Q4 relaunch covering NAERSI/NAERSILING, ELSEWHERE, and FUUNNY FEELLN is planned to revitalize brand performance.
Valuation and Dividend Yield
- The company is currently undervalued, with a dividend yield estimated at 6.5% - 7.0% for 2026.
- The low valuation and high dividend yield provide defensive support for the share price.
- Despite the revenue contraction, the company maintains a "BUY" rating due to these factors.
Peer Comparison
| Stock Code | Company | Market Cap. (HKD, mn) | P/E (X) | Fw. P/E (X) | P/B (X) | P/S (X) | Revenue (HKD, mn) | GM (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01234.HK | China Lilang | 3,472.7 | 6.2 | - | 0.7 | 0.8 | 4,505.8 | 49.6 | 12.2 |
| 01749.HK | Shanshan | 66.0 | 7.6 | - | 0.2 | 0.1 | 955.9 | 38.7 | 2.9 |
| 02030.HK | Cabbeen | 855.8 | 25.2 | - | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1,045.1 | 43.1 | 2.3 |
| 03306.HK | JNBY | 11,113.7 | 11.4 | - | 4.3 | 1.8 | 6,084.1 | 65.6 | 39.4 |
| 03998.HK | Bosideng | 52,528.3 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 28,600.9 | 56.2 | 22.9 |
| 603587.SH | Dazzle | 7,379.0 | 24.5 | 19.9 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2,365.1 | 74.9 | 7.1 |
| 603808.SH | Ellassay | 3,751.6 | 19.7 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3,162.7 | 66.9 | 6.5 |
| 603877.SH | Peacebird | 6,955.0 | 34.5 | 21.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7,013.1 | 56.7 | 3.9 |
| 002832.SZ | Biemlofen | 17,527.3 | 27.5 | 17.6 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4,776.1 | 75.1 | 10.5 |
| Average | - | 11,516.6 | 18.7 | 16.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6,501.0 | 58.5 | 12.0 |
| EEKA Fashion | - | 3,344.8 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 6,959.3 | 76.6 | 8.7 |
EEKA Fashion has a significantly lower market cap. and P/E ratio compared to its peers, suggesting it is undervalued relative to the industry.
Key Risks
- Distributor Store Efficiency: The efficiency of distributor-operated stores is lower than self-operated stores, which could impact profitability.
- E-commerce Profitability: Returns and promotional costs in e-commerce channels may erode profits, especially with live-streaming e-commerce carrying structurally higher return rates.
- Sustainability of Sales Per Store: The company may struggle to maintain the improvement in sales per store, which could affect future performance.
- Dividend Payout Ratio: Failure to maintain the dividend payout ratio could be a concern for investors.
Financial Ratios
| Financial Ratio | 2025 (A) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 76.6% | 76.3% | 76.3% | 76.4% |
| Operating Margin | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% |
| Net Profit Margin | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% |
| Return on Equity | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% |
| Return on Asset | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Current Ratio | 191.8% | 209.9% | 229.0% | 250.9% |
| Quick Ratio | 94.3% | 105.9% | 125.7% | 143.5% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
The company maintains a strong liquidity position with a rising current ratio and quick ratio, and a declining debt-to-equity ratio.
Conclusion
Despite a decline in revenue and profit, EEKA Fashion remains a "BUY" stock due to its high dividend yield and low valuation. The company has been shifting its strategy toward higher-margin channels, both online and offline, and is planning a relaunch of key brands to improve performance. However, the sustainability of this strategy and the efficiency of its distributor network remain key risks to monitor.
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