20251112-华泰期货-丙烯日报_供需驱动有限_延续底部盘整_10页_2mb

Propylene Daily Market Report Summary (2025-11-12)

Market prices showed minor changes, with propylene's main contract closing at 5869 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan. Spot prices in the East China region rose to 5875 yuan/ton, while the North China region saw no change at 5765 yuan/ton, supported by slight demand improvements but facing high inventory levels. Inventory reached 49820 tons, up from previous levels.

Supply conditions were characterized by PDH plant shutdowns (e.g., 60- and 30-万吨 units) reducing short-term output, but overall supply remains expansive due to numerous closures and re-openings. Demand partially offset supply cuts with better utilization in products like propylene oxide and propionic acid, however, sectors such as octenol experienced significant downtime.

The market remains range-bound with limited driving forces. While localized demand improvements provide some support, inventory pressures and weak cost fundamentals from cheaper international feedstocks keep the outlook neutral for short-term prices.

Recommended trading strategy is defensive: expect muted volatility and potential stabilization, with recommendations against strong positions due to limited upside potential.

Key risks include crude oil price fluctuations, upstream plant maintenance announcements, and movements in propane costs.