IMF-全球紧张局势对贸易转移的影响——比我们想象的要高（英）-2023.11-62页_2mb

Title: Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think

Core Objective: This paper analyzes trade diversion effects on Mexico's exports to the U.S. due to global trade tensions, focusing on the 2018 U.S.-China trade tensions and the 2014 U.S. sanctions on Russia. It emphasizes the role of input-output linkages and supply chain dynamics in amplifying these effects.

Methodology: Employs a unique industry-level dataset combining Mexican input-output data (INEGI) with cross-country sources (WIOD and UN Comtrade). Uses difference-in-differences, local projections, and regression analyses to estimate trade diversion, considering direct (output) and indirect (upstream and downstream) tariff impacts.

Key Findings:

• U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Estimated positive trade diversion effects are higher than previous estimates in the literature. Output tariffs have the most significant direct impact, and downstream tariffs show some positive indirect effects. Effects depend on factors like
  • U.S. tariff changes on Chinese goods (e.g., a 1 SD increase in net tariff change boosts Mexico's U.S. exports by 6.4%).
  • Decrease in U.S. imports from China.
  • Product substitutability with Chinese goods.
  • GVC integration (weak evidence of positive impact).
  • Using INEGI data shows stronger effects compared to WIOD due to finer industry granularity.
• U.S. Sanctions on Russia: Event study using dynamic regressions and local projections finds a positive trade diversion effect, with U.S. imports from Mexico increasing by about 10% four months post-sanctions.

Conclusion: Trade diversion effects may be higher than previously thought, and proper accounting of supply linkages and input-output data is crucial for accurate estimation. Geoeconomic fragmentation poses risks to global welfare, and Mexico benefits significantly during global tensions. Policy implications include the need for caution in trade policies and further research on supply chain resilience.

Policy Implications: Highlighted the short-term benefits of trade diversion but stress that negative financial conditions and trade uncertainty can negatively impact all countries. Suggests that supply linkages matter more in empirical analyses.