20171016-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2017.10.16_21页_1mb

U.S. Feed Outlook Summary (October 16, 2017)

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) released the Feed Outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year, highlighting changes in U.S. and global feed grain production, use, and prices.

U.S. Corn Production and Use

• Projected yield for U.S. corn increased by 1.9 bushels per acre, raising production to 14.280 billion bushels, the second-highest ever.
• Feed and residual use for 2017/18 is raised by 25 million bushels to 5,500 million, while food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is raised by 10 million bushels to 6,935 million.
• Total disappearance is projected at 12,435 million bushels, up by 35 million bushels from the previous month.
• Ending stocks are projected at 2,340 million bushels, up slightly from the last month.
• Projected corn prices remain steady at a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.20, the lowest since 2006.

Sorghum Outlook

• 2017/18 sorghum yield is raised by 2.4 bushels per acre to 72.2 bushels, with production down by 6.2 million bushels to 364.5 million due to a 0.3 million acre reduction.
• Supply for 2017/18 is 398.0 million bushels, the lowest since 2012.
• Ending stocks are forecast at 28.0 million bushels, down 5.5 million from 2016/17.
• Projected sorghum prices for the new crop range from $2.50 to $3.30 per bushel, with a midpoint of $2.90. The old crop price is lowered to $2.79 per bushel.

Oats Outlook

• Harvested acres for oats decreased by 79,000 to 801,000, and planted acres dropped by 5,200 to 2.6 million.
• Yield increased by 0.7 bushels per acre to 61.7 bushels, resulting in production of 49.4 million bushels, 4.3 million below the previous month.
• Total use for 2017/18 is reduced by 2 million bushels to 161.5 million, with feed and residual up by 3.9 million bushels to 81.8 million.
• Ending stocks are down to 50.3 million bushels.

Barley Outlook

• New crop barley production is raised by 1.7 million bushels to 141.9 million.
• Supply is estimated at 263.3 million bushels, with carryout at 70.3 million bushels.
• 2016/17 barley production is raised by 0.6 million bushels to 199.9 million, with supply at 311.7 million bushels.
• Projected average price for 2017/18 is $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel, with a midpoint of $4.60.

Hay Outlook

• U.S. hay production for 2017 is forecast at 131.9 million tons, down 2% from 2016 due to lower yields.
• Alfalfa hay and mixtures are down 4% to 56.0 million tons.
• Other hay production is down to 75.9 million tons, with yields at 2.08 tons per acre.
• Roughage-consuming animal units (RCAUs) are up to 71.4 million, but hay use per RCAU is down to 1.85 tons.

Global Outlook

Coarse Grain Production

• World coarse grain production for 2017/18 is up 2.8 million tons to 1,319.4 million.
• Foreign coarse grain production is up 0.7 million tons to 943.3 million, though still down 21.0 million tons from the previous year.
• U.S. production is up 2.2 million tons to 376.0 million, with corn being the main contributor.

Coarse Grain Use

• Global coarse grain use is projected up 4.4 million tons to 1,352.2 million.
• China is the largest increase in coarse grain use, up 3.5 million tons to 259.1 million, with FSI use and feed and residual use both increasing.
• Vietnam is projected to have a decline in corn feeding by 1.0 million tons to 12.0 million, due to reduced feed demand and border restrictions.

Coarse Grain Trade

• World corn trade for 2016/17 is down 2.6 million tons to 150.9 million.
• Vietnam reduced corn imports by 1.0 million tons, and Argentina reduced corn exports by 1.0 million tons.
• U.S. corn exports for 2017/18 remain unchanged at 47.0 million tons.
• Oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain exports are reduced due to lower global output.

Key Changes and Revisions

• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) experienced significant revisions in coarse grain production and use.
  • Corn production in SSA is up 4.1 million tons, mainly due to Nigeria and Chad.
  • Millet production is down 3.0 million tons, with Nigeria affected by drought.
  • FSI use in SSA is up 2.5 million tons, with corn use rising due to industrial demand.

Summary of Major Points

• U.S. corn production is at a record high.
• Feed and residual use is up, driven by larger supplies and increased industrial demand.
• Sorghum production is lower due to reduced acreage, despite higher yields.
• Oats are down in production and use, with reduced imports and exports.
• Barley production is up slightly, with price projections reflecting weak market conditions.
• Hay production is down, with lower yields affecting overall use.
• Global corn trade is down, with major reductions in Argentina and Vietnam.
• China is the largest increase in coarse grain use, driven by industrial demand.
• SSA has seen record grain use, with corn and barley imports increasing.

Conclusion

The Feed Outlook for 2017/18 reflects a mixed global market, with U.S. corn production and use rising, while sorghum, oats, and millet face challenges. China and SSA show strong demand, while Vietnam and Argentina experience reduced use and exports. The report highlights the impact of weather, trade policies, and market trends on feed grain production and consumption.