2025-05-19-Jefferies-健身数据追踪4月趋势稳定_XPOF品牌领先精品同行_17页_908kb

Fitness & Wellness Equity Research Summary

Key Market Trends (April 2025)

• Foot Traffic: Traditional gyms (e.g., Planet Fitness, Crunch Fitness) showed resilient levels, while boutique operators (e.g., Club Pilates, Pure Barre) displayed mixed year-over-year performance, with some decline and moderate growth.
• Web Visits: Digital engagement increased for traditional brands, while boutique gyms saw variable results; Planet Fitness experienced a slight YoY decrease, but growth is expected in the future.
• Search Trends: "Gym near me" searches rose ~5% YoY, indicating consumer interest; "Cancel Gym Membership" searches jumped 14% YoY, reflecting potential churn or exploratory behavior.

Company Insights

• Planet Fitness (PLNT): Solid Q1 results with 6.1% system-wide comp store growth; strong digital traction includes web visits and app downloads; BUY recommendation with a $150 price target, driven by secular tailwinds and expected accelerated comp store growth.
• Xponential Fitness (XPOF): Growth is normalizing after softer unit growth; BUY recommendation at $26 price target, supported by strategic initiatives; resilient business model amid competitive pressures.

Valuation and Recommendations

• PLNT: Mid-23x EV/EBITDA 2026E guidance; asymmetric risk-reward with buy entry recommendation.
• XPOF: ~10x EV/EBITDA 2026E; focus on long-term growth potential.
• Overall market conditions show strengths in digital fitness; risk factors include competition, macroeconomic headwinds, and expansion challenges.