IMF-韩国的增长前景：克服人口统计学和COVID-19（英文）-2021.3-38页_996kb

Summary of IMF Working Paper: Korea's Growth Prospects: Overcoming Demographics and COVID-19

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper by Andrew Swiston evaluates Korea's economic growth prospects in the context of demographic challenges and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It explores the historical growth trajectory of Korea, identifies the key factors that have driven growth, and outlines the structural reforms necessary to sustain economic performance in the face of slowing growth and demographic headwinds.

Main Viewpoints

• Historical Growth: Korea experienced rapid growth from the 1960s, driven by export-oriented manufacturing, high investment, and increasing educational attainment. This growth brought Korea to high-income status, with per capita income reaching two-thirds of the U.S. level.

• Slowing Growth: Growth has slowed in recent years, and potential output growth is projected to decelerate further. Before the pandemic, potential output growth had already slowed to about 2.5 percent and is expected to fall to 2 percent by 2030, primarily due to demographic changes.

• Demographics as a Headwind: An aging population and declining working-age share are expected to reduce labor inputs, contributing to slower growth. Female labor force participation remains below average, presenting an area for potential improvement.

• Investment Trends: Investment has been a major contributor to growth, but its pace has slowed. The paper uses an accelerator model to estimate private non-residential investment, projecting it to remain slightly below recent levels at around 19–20% of GDP over the next decade.

• Capacity Utilization: Capacity utilization is used as an indicator of capital services. It has declined over time, especially in manufacturing, and is projected to remain low. Adjusting capital services for capacity utilization improves the accuracy of potential output estimates.

• Total Factor Productivity (TFP): TFP has been a key driver of growth in the past, but it has stagnated since the early 2000s. Productivity gains are particularly low in the services sector, suggesting a need for structural reforms to enhance productivity.

• Impact of the Pandemic: The pandemic has introduced additional challenges, with potential output expected to decrease by about 3% in the medium term. The effects have been uneven across sectors, with greater impacts on industries reliant on person-to-person interaction. Structural rigidities may lead to persistent scarring, affecting both capital and human capital accumulation.

• Structural Reforms: The paper emphasizes the importance of structural reforms to offset the negative effects of demographics and the pandemic. An illustrative scenario suggests that such reforms could raise potential growth by about 0.5 percentage points annually.

Key Information

Demographics and Labor Inputs

• Historical Trends: A growing working-age population supported high labor input growth until the late 1990s, after which it stabilized.
• Future Projections: The labor force participation rate is expected to decline after 2025 due to an aging population and lower educational attainment growth.
• Gender Disparity: Female labor participation is below average, with potential for improvement.

Investment and Capital Accumulation

• Accelerator Model: Used to estimate private non-residential investment, which is a key input to growth.
• Projection: Investment is expected to remain around 19–20% of GDP, slightly below recent levels, due to a higher capital-output ratio.

Capacity Utilization

• Indicator Role: Capacity utilization reflects capital services and helps distinguish between cyclical and trend components of output.
• Sectoral Differences: Manufacturing capacity utilization has been higher than non-manufacturing in the past but is now lower. The paper uses a weighted approach to estimate economy-wide capacity utilization.

Productivity and Structural Transformation

• TFP Growth: TFP has been a key driver of growth, especially in manufacturing, but has stagnated in recent years.
• Sectoral Productivity: The services sector has lagged in productivity growth, suggesting a need for reforms in product and labor markets to improve efficiency.
• Rebalancing: The economy needs to shift from capital accumulation to structural reforms to enhance productivity in lagging sectors.

Policy Implications

• Structural Reforms: Needed to counteract demographic and pandemic-related slowdowns.
• Reform Scenario: An illustrative scenario shows that reforms could raise potential growth by about 0.5% annually.
• Investment in Dynamic Sectors: Policies should support investment in sectors with high growth potential post-pandemic, such as services.

Conclusion

Korea's economic growth has slowed due to demographic challenges and the lingering effects of the pandemic. Structural reforms are crucial to reversing this trend and enhancing productivity, particularly in the services sector. The paper highlights the importance of improving labor and product market flexibility, as well as fostering investment in dynamic sectors, to ensure sustainable growth in the future.