美国企业研究所-打击伊斯兰国在非洲的蔓延：对莫桑比克的评估和建议（英文）-2021.2-37页_7mb

Summary of "Combating the Islamic State's Spread in Africa: Assessment and Recommendations for Mozambique"

Core Content

The document analyzes the growing threat of the Islamic State in Mozambique (IS-M), an affiliate of the global Salafi-jihadi movement, and outlines the implications of its insurgency in northern Mozambique. It emphasizes the need for an international response to prevent the establishment of a permanent extremist enclave in the region, which could have far-reaching consequences for regional and global security.

Main Threats and Implications

• IS-M Will Establish a Lasting Foothold in Cabo Delgado: The Mozambican government lacks the capacity to sustain a military presence in the region due to security-sector weaknesses and competing priorities. IS-M is likely to control parts of the province, exacerbating the humanitarian and political crisis.
• Poor Government Responses Will Exacerbate the Conflict: Reports of human rights abuses by Mozambican soldiers and the state's heavy-handed tactics have generated public discontent, potentially fueling further radicalization.
• Worsening Political Instability: The insurgency could reignite old rivalries from Mozambique's 15-year civil war and undermine the country's political and economic stability.
• Risk of Spillover into Neighboring Countries: IS-M may target South Africa or deeper into Tanzania, internationalizing the conflict and increasing regional security threats.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has displaced over 424,000 people and disrupted the country's response to the pandemic. Addressing this crisis is critical to preventing further radicalization.

Key Information

• Location: The IS-M insurgency is centered in Cabo Delgado Province, a remote and historically marginalized region in northern Mozambique.
• Population Dynamics: Cabo Delgado has a 52.5% Muslim population, with significant Catholic and other religious communities. The Mwani ethnic group, historically part of the coastal Swahili economic network, is particularly vulnerable to recruitment.
• Economic Factors: The province suffers from poor governance, corruption, underinvestment, and lack of economic opportunities, which have fueled grievances and made the population susceptible to extremist ideologies.
• Religious Influence: The insurgency is linked to Wahhabi religious education and the influence of East African and global Salafi-jihadi networks, including the Somali al-Shabaab and Tanzanian Salafi-jihadi groups.
• Humanitarian Impact: The conflict has caused mass displacement, disrupted LNG projects (key to Mozambique's future economy), and undermined public services and infrastructure.

Document Structure

• Executive Summary: Outlines the threat posed by IS-M and the need for international cooperation.
• Introduction: Provides context on the spread of Salafi-jihadi groups in Africa and highlights the specific risks associated with the IS-M insurgency.
• Part I: Assessing the Northern Mozambique Insurgency: Details the historical, economic, and social factors that contributed to the emergence and growth of IS-M.
• Part II: Implications and Recommendations: Proposes steps for international actors to assist Mozambique in addressing the crisis, including security, diplomatic, and humanitarian responses.

Recommendations

Security Response

• Multilateral or bilateral support is needed to recapture and hold territory from IS-M.
• Focus should be on accountability of security personnel and transitioning insurgents back to civilian life.
• A disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program should include a countering violent extremism (CVE) component.

Diplomatic Response

• International organizations and foreign governments should manage regional tensions to prevent the conflict from becoming transnational.
• Diplomatic efforts should aim to prevent the conflict from escalating and limit the involvement of external actors with conflicting interests.

Humanitarian Response

• A strong and effective humanitarian response is essential to support security objectives and facilitate the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• International actors, including UN agencies, donor governments, and NGOs, are needed to fill the gap in local government capacity.
• The response must address both individual and community needs to support recovery and stability.

Conclusion

The IS-M insurgency is a solvable problem, but its resolution requires international collaboration and a holistic approach that addresses both security and humanitarian challenges. Failure to act may lead to long-term instability, increased radicalization, and regional security threats, particularly in South Africa and Tanzania. The document underscores the importance of countering extremist ideology and reintegrating former combatants into society to prevent the establishment of a permanent Salafi-jihadi presence in Mozambique.