2023-05-08-IMF-远不止一针强心针_疫苗和消费者支出（英）_15页_552kb

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on consumer spending using high-frequency data from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania between 2020 and 2022. The study examines debit and credit card transactions, economies policy measures, and vaccination rollout.

Key findings show that COVID-19 vaccinations had a statistically significant positive effect on private consumption, with a 1% increase in vaccines associated with a 0.011% rise in card transactions. This effect was more pronounced in service sectors due to their contact-intensive nature. Other policy interventions, such as containment measures and economic support, also influenced spending, but the vaccination boost was crucial in mitigating pandemic-induced declines.

The analysis reveals heterogeneity across countries and spending categories, with Lithuania showing faster recovery than Estonia and Latvia. Granular breakdown by 33 categories confirms that sectors like travel and services responded more strongly to vaccinations.

Overall, vaccines played a vital role in stabilizing the economy by enhancing consumer confidence, though a moderate and enduring effect is noted. The paper emphasizes the need for accelerated vaccination and targeted economic support measures.