20260227-招银国际-4Q25_review_total_revenue_recovered_on_improving_content_performance_5页_662kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # iQIYI (IQ US) # 4Q25 review: total revenue recovered on improving content performance iQiyi announced 4Q25 results: total revenue grew by $3 \%$ YoY to RMB6.79bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income was RMB110mn, up from RMB59mn net loss in 4Q24 and ahead of consensus estimate of RMB68mn, thanks to the operating leverage. Looking ahead, we forecast total revenue to decline by $13 \%$ YoY and $8 \%$ QoQ to RMB6.28bn in 1Q26E, as the company has been adjusting content strategy and reducing content distributed to other channels, which could lead to a decline in content distribution revenue. Thus, we lower our FY26 total revenue forecast by $4 \%$ and cut our non-GAAP net profit forecast to RMB0.8bn (previous: RMB1.0bn) due to operating deleverage. We lower our target price to US $2.00 based on 18x 2026E non-GAAP EPS (previous: US$ 2.75 based on 18x 2026E non-GAAP EPS). Maintain BUY. Total revenue recovered in 4Q25, but 1Q26E remains challenging. Membership services revenue was RMB4.1bn in 4Q25, flattish YoY after declining for 7 consecutive quarters, thanks to the improving content performance. iQiyi ranked the first in viewership market share on 2025 Enlightent Data TV series annual ranking, supported by 5 titles that exceeded 10,000 iQiyi popularity score. Online advertising revenue dropped by $6\%$ YoY to RMB1.4bn in 4Q25, mainly due to the decline in ad budget of certain advertisers amid macro headwinds. Content distribution revenue increased by $94\%$ YoY to RMB788mn in 4Q25, primarily thanks to the increase in cash transactions with TV and other channels. Others revenue declined by $18\%$ YoY to RMB548mn in 4Q25. Looking ahead, we expect total revenue to decline by $13\%$ YoY and $8\%$ QoQ to RMB6.28bn in 1Q26E, with membership/online advertising/content distribution revenue down by $5\% / 8\% / 38\%$ YoY respectively. Emerging businesses made solid progress. New initiatives started to bear fruit: 1) overseas membership revenue grew by over $40\%$ YoY in 2H25, with subscriber base reaching record highs; 2) IP experience business achieved new milestones and opened its first iQiyi Land in Feb 2026, receiving positive early feedback; 3) the company now has over 20,000 micro-drama titles with over $70\%$ available for free. On the AI front, the company launched NaDou AI agent platform, which integrates large model capabilities and iQiyi's expertise in content creation, to streamline content production pipeline from script evaluation to content generation. - Margin to remain under pressure. iQiyi gross margin improved by 2.7ppts QoQ to $20.9\%$ in 4Q25, thanks to the recovery of membership businesses. Non-GAAP operating margin rose by 2.4ppts YoY to $2.1\%$ in 4Q25. For 1Q26E, we expect iQiyi's non-GAAP OPM to decline by 2.9ppts QoQ to $-0.8\%$ , as the declines in online advertising and content distribution revenue lead to operating deleverage. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (RMB mn) 29,225 27,291 26,917 27,921 29,005 YoY growth (%) (8.7) (6.6) (1.4) 3.7 3.9 Gross margin (%) 24.9 21.1 22.1 24.1 25.0 Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) 1,512.2 280.6 750.7 1,330.1 1,739.0 EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) 1.57 0.29 0.78 1.38 1.80 Consensus EPS (RMB) 1.57 0.29 0.82 1.65 2.97 P/S (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$2.00 (Previous TP US$2.75) Up/Downside 17.0% Current Price US$1.71 # China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226 franktao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 1,648.0 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 19.6 52w High/Low (US$) 2.79/1.53 Total Issued Shares (mn) 963.8 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Baidu 45.1% PAG 12.2% Source: Company data Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -19.3% -17.0% 3-mth -20.5% -20.3% 6-mth -27.5% -32.4% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet Figure 1: iQiyi: forecast revision Current Previous Change (%) RMBbn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 26.9 27.9 29.0 27.9 28.4 NA -3.7% -1.7% NA Gross Profit 5.9 6.7 7.2 6.5 6.9 NA -8.7% -2.2% NA Operating Profit 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.4 NA -32.0% 1.7% NA Non-GAAP net profit 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.3 NA -27.2% 6.0% NA Non-GAAP EPS (RMB) 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.3 NA -27.2% 6.1% NA Gross Margin 22.1% 24.1% 25.0% 23.3% 24.2% NA -1.2 ppt -0.1 ppt NA Operating Margin 2.9% 5.3% 6.6% 4.2% 5.1% NA -1.2 ppt 0.2 ppt NA Non-GAAP net margin 2.8% 4.8% 6.0% 3.7% 4.4% NA -0.9 ppt 0.3 ppt NA Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 2: iQiyi: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus RMBbn CMBIGM Consensus Diff (%) FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 26.9 27.9 29.0 28.0 29.0 28.7 -3.7% -3.9% 1.1% Gross Profit 5.9 6.7 7.2 6.3 7.1 7.1 -5.7% -4.9% 2.7% Operating Profit 0.8 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.6 2.1 -13.2% -9.0% -6.3% Non-GAAP net profit 0.8 1.3 1.7 0.8 1.6 2.9 -5.6% -16.3% -39.3% Non-GAAP EPS (RMB) 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.8 1.6 3.0 -5.6% -16.3% -39.3% Gross Margin 22.1% 24.1% 25.0% 22.5% 24.4% 24.6% -0.5 ppt -0.3 ppt 0.4 ppt Operating Margin 2.9% 5.3% 6.6% 3.3% 5.5% 7.2% -0.3 ppt -0.3 ppt -0.5 ppt Non-GAAP net margin 2.8% 4.8% 6.0% 2.8% 5.5% 10.0% -0.1 ppt -0.7 ppt -4.0 ppt Source: CMBIGM estimates, Bloomberg # Valuation We value iQiyi at US\(2.00 per ADS based on 18x 2026E non-GAAP EPS. Our target PE multiple is at a discount to the sector average (22x), due to the intense competition in China's video streaming sector. Figure 3: iQiyi: target valuation P/E valuation 2026E Non-GAAP EPADS 0.78 Target 2026E PE (x) 18.0 Target Price (CNY) 14.02 Target Price (US$) 2.00 Note: CNY/USD = 7.0 Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Figure 4: Global streaming platforms Companies Ticker Price (LC) PE(x) PS (x) EPS CAGR 25-27E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E Netflix Inc NFLX US 82.7 26.4 21.7 6.8 6.1 22% Disney DIS US 105.1 15.9 14.4 1.8 1.8 12% Spotify SPOT US 463.3 31.1 24.5 4.1 3.7 50% TME TME US 14.7 14.6 12.5 4.3 3.8 13% Average 22.0 18.3 4.3 3.8 Note: data as of 25 Feb Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 32,018 29,225 27,291 26,917 27,921 29,005 Cost of goods sold (23,102) (21,954) (21,542) (20,971) (21,192) (21,756) Gross profit 8,916 7,272 5,749 5,945 6,729 7,249 Operating expenses (5,781) (5,460) (5,520) (5,154) (5,263) (5,322) SG&A expense (4,014) (3,682) (3,857) (3,543) (3,620) (3,673) R&D expense (1,767) (1,778) (1,663) (1,611) (1,643) (1,649) Operating profit 3,135 1,811 229 791 1,466 1,927 Share of (losses)/profits of associates/JV (51) 18 (4) (4) (4) (4) EBIT 3,084 1,829 225 786 1,462 1,922 Interest income 257 272 334 334 334 334 Interest expense (1,130) (1,062) (910) (764) (764) (764) Foreign exchange gain/loss (105) (97) 246 0 0 0 Other income/expense 73 (90) 45 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 2,178 852 (60) 357 1,032 1,493 Income tax (80) (61) (145) (43) (155) (224) After tax profit 2,098 791 (204) 314 877 1,269 Minority interest 27 27 2 0 0 0 Net profit 2,071 764 (206) 314 877 1,269 Adjusted net profit 2,984 1,512 281 751 1,330 1,739 BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 12,635 9,527 10,290 12,402 13,867 15,607 Cash & equivalents 4,435 3,530 4,354 5,590 6,849 8,367 Restricted cash 6 0 23 23 23 23 Account receivables 2,169 2,191 2,523 2,251 2,258 2,267 Prepayment 2,794 2,193 2,406 2,373 2,462 2,557 Other current assets 3,231 1,613 984 2,164 2,275 2,392 Non-current assets 31,959 36,233 36,391 39,680 39,824 40,322 PP&E 864 878 903 1,400 1,427 1,466 Right-of-use assets 684 610 490 490 490 490 Deferred income tax 0 24 21 21 21 21 Investment in JVs & assocos 2,261 2,108 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 Intangibles 310 290 217 1,275 1,412 1,556 Goodwill 3,821 3,821 3,821 3,276 3,276 3,276 Other non-current assets 24,020 28,503 29,166 31,446 31,426 31,740 Total assets 44,594 45,761 46,682 52,082 53,692 55,929 Current liabilities 22,342 21,477 22,067 21,476 21,761 22,265 Short-term borrowings 3,572 3,787 2,493 2,493 2,493 2,493 Account payables 5,671 6,482 6,652 6,393 6,461 6,632 Other current liabilities 10,129 8,053 10,075 9,920 10,111 10,373 Lease liabilities 101 97 84 84 84 84 Accrued expenses 2,869 3,058 2,762 2,586 2,613 2,682 Non-current liabilities 10,068 10,909 11,306 11,306 11,306 11,306 Long-term borrowings 98 1,037 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 Convertible bonds 8,144 8,351 6,712 6,712 6,712 6,712 Other non-current liabilities 1,826 1,522 1,225 1,225 1,225 1,225 Total liabilities 32,409 32,387 33,373 32,781 33,067 33,571 Share capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital surplus 54,971 55,624 56,026 60,976 61,423 61,887 Retained earnings (44,573) (43,809) (44,016) (44,210) (43,333) (42,064) Other reserves 1,688 1,551 1,306 2,543 2,543 2,543 Total shareholders equity 12,087 13,365 13,316 19,308 20,632 22,365 Minority interest 98 8 (8) (8) (8) (8) Total equity and liabilities 44,594 45,761 46,682 52,082 53,692 55,929 CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation 2,178 852 (60) 357 1,032 1,493 Depreciation & amortization 14,091 13,625 18,234 17,361 16,434 15,957 Tax paid (80) (61) (145) (43) (155) (224) Change in working capital (13,358) (12,359) (18,328) (13,295) (12,364) (11,947) Others 666 53 403 975 447 464 Net cash from operations 3,497 2,110 106 5,355 5,393 5,743 Investing Capital expenditure (105) (173) (412) (407) (422) (438) Others (1,635) (2,272) 85 (3,713) (3,713) (3,787) Net cash from investing (1,740) (2,445) (327) (4,119) (4,134) (4,225) Financing Net borrowings 9,049 4,953 (2,932) 0 0 0 Others (13,334) (6,323) 3,997 0 0 0 Net cash from financing (4,285) (1,370) 1,064 0 0 0 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 7,098 4,435 3,530 4,354 5,590 6,849 Exchange difference 92 15 (55) 0 0 0 Others (228) 785 0 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 4,435 3,530 4,354 5,590 6,849 8,367 GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Revenue 10.4% (8.7%) (6.6%) (1.4%) 3.7% 3.9% Gross profit 33.5% (18.4%) (20.9%) 3.4% 13.2% 7.7% Operating profit 138.9% (42.2%) (87.3%) 244.8% 85.4% 31.4% EBIT 180.6% (40.7%) (87.7%) 249.6% 85.9% 31.5% Net profit na (63.1%) na na 179.5% 44.6% Adj. net profit 132.4% (49.3%) (81.4%) 167.6% 77.2% 30.7% PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 27.8% 24.9% 21.1% 22.1% 24.1% 25.0% Operating margin 9.8% 6.2% 0.8% 2.9% 5.3% 6.6% Adj. net profit margin 9.3% 5.2% 1.0% 2.8% 4.8% 6.0% Return on equity (ROE) 22.6% 6.0% (1.5%) 1.9% 4.4% 5.9% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) Current ratio (x) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 Receivable turnover days 24.7 27.4 33.7 30.5 29.5 28.5 Payable turnover days 89.6 107.8 112.7 111.3 111.3 111.3 VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec P/E 5.4 14.7 ns 35.9 12.8 8.9 P/E (diluted) 5.5 14.9 ns 35.9 12.8 8.9 P/B 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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