发电成本（2023_2024年）-131页_1mb

GenCost 2023-24 Summary

Core Content

GenCost 2023-24 is a collaborative report between CSIRO and AEMO, providing updated cost data for electricity generation, energy storage, and hydrogen production technologies. It is the sixth update since the inaugural report in 2018 and emphasizes stakeholder engagement to improve the accuracy and relevance of its findings.

Main Purpose and Scope

• Purpose: To deliver an annual update on the costs of electricity generation, storage, and hydrogen technologies, with a focus on integration costs for variable renewable energy (VRE).
• Scope: Includes capital cost estimates, LCOE analysis, and projections under different global and local policy scenarios. It covers both large-scale nuclear and small modular reactors (SMR), as well as storage and hydrogen technologies.

Key Findings

Current Technology Costs

• The report updates current capital costs based on data from Aurecon, reflecting the latest available information.
• The 2023 report includes integration costs for VRE for the first time, incorporating pre-2030 storage and transmission projects that have been approved or funded.
• The cost of deploying high VRE shares is expected to be 12% to 36% higher in 2023 than in 2030, primarily due to the difference in technology costs and pre-2030 infrastructure investments.
• Integration costs consist mainly of additional storage and transmission costs.

Nuclear Technology Costs

• Large-scale nuclear was added to the report for the first time, based on South Korean cost data, which is considered a good representation of a continuous building program.
• Capital cost for large-scale nuclear in 2023 is estimated at $8,655/kW, and is expected to fall to $136 to $226/MWh by 2040.
• Nuclear SMR costs have increased significantly due to recent project updates, particularly from UAMPS, which reported a 57% cost increase to $28,580/kW.
• SMR and large-scale nuclear are not expected to be operational by 2030, requiring 11 years of pre-construction tasks and 4 to 6 years of construction.

Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

• LCOE is used to assess the competitiveness of different generation technologies.
• In 2023, variable renewables (solar PV and wind) have the lowest LCOE range, overlapping with the lower end of coal and gas costs.
• Excluding high emission technologies, the next most competitive options are solar thermal, gas with CCS, large-scale nuclear, and coal with CCS.
• Solar thermal may face higher transmission costs due to the need for better solar resources further from load centres.

Scenario Narratives and Data Assumptions

• The report outlines three key scenarios: Current policies, Global NZE by 2050, and Global NZE post 2050.
• Each scenario has different assumptions regarding technology learning rates, policy direction, and future cost trends.
• The Global NZE by 2050 scenario assumes a faster transition to net-zero emissions, while the post-2050 scenario considers continued decarbonisation efforts beyond 2050.

Major Changes in Response to Feedback

• The 2023-24 consultation received the highest volume of feedback in GenCost's history, with 45 written submissions and many first-time participants.
• Large-scale nuclear was included for the first time, responding to stakeholder demand.
• Wind generation costs were increased, and a revised approach was developed for including solar thermal generation costs.
• A permanent FAQ section was added in Appendix D to address common questions from new stakeholders.
• The data and assumptions were moved to an appendix to improve readability and focus on report results.

Additional Highlights

• Integration costs for VRE are critical as their share increases, leading to the need for additional storage and transmission infrastructure.
• Technology learning rates vary by scenario and are used to project future cost reductions.
• Hydrogen production costs are also included, with estimates for different electrolyzer technologies.
• The report acknowledges the complexity of VRE integration and the challenges in accurately estimating these costs without detailed system modeling.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 2-1 compares current capital cost estimates with previous reports.
• Figure 2-2 shows the change in capital costs of selected technologies relative to GenCost 2022-23.
• Figure 4-1 provides a projected global electricity generation mix for 2030 and 2050.
• Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2 show the range of generation and storage capacity deployed under different VRE shares.
• Tables 5-1 to 5-6 and Appendix B to E provide detailed cost data and assumptions for each technology and scenario.

Conclusion

GenCost 2023-24 highlights the evolving cost landscape of electricity generation and storage technologies, with a focus on the integration of variable renewables. It provides updated cost estimates and LCOE analysis under various policy scenarios, emphasizing the importance of stakeholder input and the need for a continuous building program to achieve cost reductions in nuclear technologies.