2025-06-10-花旗集团-拉美航空公司（LTM）_5月客运载运率提高_而货运载量略有恶化_10页_293kb

LATAM Airlines Citi Research Summary May 2025

Passenger Traffic

• System-wide RPKs increased 9.6% y-o-y, with ASKs up 7.2% and load factor at 83.1%.
• In Brazil's domestic market, RPKs rose 17.5% on 13% ASK growth due to airport recovery, with uncertainties in competitive dynamics.
• In Spanish-speaking markets, RPKs and ASKs were flat y-o-y, but international RPKs increased 8.6% with load factor at 85.1%.

Cargo Traffic

• Revenue ton kilometers (RTKs) edged down 0.7% y-o-y, with capacity (ATKs) up 1.7%, leading to a load factor decrease to 53.3%.

Analyst's View

• Neutral rating maintained; passenger segment demand outpaced capacity but lagged Citi’s 2Q 2025 estimates. Cargo loads declined. Uncertainty persists on share gains due to Brazil's competitive environment.

Valuation

• Target price US$39 per ADR based on 4.5x 2025E EBITDA, above Copa Airlines' valuation despite lower margins and dividend yield. High Risk rating not assigned due to qualitative factors.
• Expected share price return -0.4%, total return 0.3%, dividend yield 0.8%.

Key Risks

• Economic (fx, oil, demand declines), regulatory (operating certificates), and supply challenges (aircraft, labor).
• Upside risks: Stronger joint business agreement (JBA) revenues or rebounds in investor risk appetite.