2026年欧洲移动经济报告_39页_2mb

Summary of The Mobile Economy Europe 2026

Core Content

The GSMA Intelligence report, The Mobile Economy Europe 2026, provides a comprehensive overview of the economic and strategic importance of the mobile industry in the European Union (EU). It outlines the current state of the mobile sector, key trends shaping its future, and the policy environment that needs reform to support innovation and growth.

Key Trends

1. The Investment Gap

• Current Investment: GSMA Intelligence forecasts that mobile operators will invest €270 billion between 2026 and 2036 to maintain the business-as-usual technology upgrade and replacement cycle.
• Needed Investment: To restore Europe as a global mobile connectivity leader, an additional €200 billion is required, bringing the total investment to €475 billion over the next decade.
• Impact of Investment: This level of investment would align Europe's annual mobile capex per connection with leading global markets, at around €70.
• Breakdown of Required Investment:
  • €35 billion to extend 5G coverage to all populated areas.
  • €38 billion to improve network resilience.
  • €28 billion to prepare networks for AI.
  • €104 billion to provide 5G coverage for transport routes.

2. Cybersecurity and Resilience

• Security Threats: Mobile networks continue to face a large number of attacks, with Deutsche Telekom reporting 70 million attacks per day on its honeypot systems.
• Regulatory Fragmentation: Cybersecurity regulations in Europe are fragmented, leading to overlapping obligations, duplicated reporting, and administrative burdens.
• Challenges: 40% of European operators cite regulatory uncertainty or complexity as the biggest challenge in cybersecurity investment, compared to 16% in other regions.
• Operator Strategies: Operators are focusing on increasing automation, improving collaboration, and deploying telecom-specific tools to enhance security.

3. Sovereign AI

• Digital Sovereignty: The EU has prioritised digital sovereignty, especially in cloud and AI markets.
• Operator Position: Mobile operators are well-positioned to provide sovereign cloud and AI services due to their expertise in critical national infrastructure and experience in regulated environments.
• Market Response: Non-European tech companies are also responding to the demand for sovereign solutions, indicating a growing market opportunity.

Economic Impact

1.1 Macroeconomic Outlook

• EU Growth: In 2025, EU economic growth was 1.4%, lagging behind the global average of 3.1%.
• Drivers of Growth: Growth has been supported by private consumption, but investment and industrial activity have been constrained by tighter financial conditions, high interest rates, and weaker external demand.
• Productivity and Innovation: The EU's productivity gains and investment in innovation have lagged behind other major economies, highlighting the need for sustained investment in advanced connectivity, cloud infrastructure, and transformative technologies.

1.2 Mobile's Contribution to the Economy

• Economic Value: In 2025, mobile technologies contributed €1.1 trillion of economic value, representing 6.1% of GDP.
• Productivity Effects: €820 billion of this value came from productivity gains.
• Direct Contribution: €200 billion was generated directly by the mobile ecosystem.
• Employment Impact: The mobile ecosystem supported 1.3 million direct jobs and 1.1 million indirect jobs, totaling 2.4 million jobs in 2025.
• Fiscal Contribution: Mobile operators contributed €110 billion in taxes, representing 2.2% of total tax revenue.
• Spectrum Fees: Spectrum costs have almost tripled from 3% to 8% of revenue since 2014, driven by non-market factors such as high reserve prices and auction designs.

1.3 Contribution of 5G and Its Ecosystem

• 5G Impact: 5G and its ecosystem are expected to drive significant economic value through external value creation (new revenue streams) and internal value enhancement (productivity, cost efficiency).
• Sector Contributions:
  • Services and Manufacturing: Account for more than half of the incremental economic impact.
  • Public Administration: Remains a substantial contributor due to the importance of digital government and e-services.
  • Information and Communication Sector: Expected to account for 7% of the benefits, highlighting the growing role of digital industries.

Policy Recommendations

4.1 Policy Framework for Horizontal Mergers

• Current Limitations: The EU Merger Guidelines are too focused on short-term static effects and price impacts, not giving enough consideration to long-term innovation and investment.
• Need for Reform: A more dynamic and forward-looking policy framework is required to support sustained investment and technological capability building.

4.2 DNA Proposals on Spectrum

• Benefits: The Digital Networks Act (DNA) proposals are beneficial in spectrum allocation and promoting connectivity.
• Limitations: They do not introduce consistent rules across the digital ecosystem, creating uncertainty that may hinder innovation.

4.3 DNA Proposals Fall Short

• Missing Elements: The DNA proposals fail to address key areas such as market competition, investment incentives, and regulatory clarity.
• Need for Expansion: The proposals need to be expanded to include long-term investment support and innovation frameworks.

4.4 Revised Cybersecurity Act

• Disproportionate Demands: The revised Cybersecurity Act (CSA2) imposes disproportionate financial and operational burdens on operators.
• Impact on Investment: Poorly designed cybersecurity regulations may weaken long-term investment, slow digital infrastructure expansion, and reduce the broader tax base.
• Need for Reform: A revised and more balanced approach is needed to ensure security without stifling innovation.

Conclusion

The mobile industry plays a critical role in economic growth, employment, and fiscal contributions in the EU. To fully realise its potential, sustained investment is essential, and policy reform is necessary to address regulatory fragmentation, investment barriers, and security challenges. The GSMA Intelligence report underscores the need for a modern, integrated, and resilient connectivity ecosystem to ensure Europe's competitiveness and innovation-driven growth in the coming years.