2003年-世界发展银行全球_Twenty-Seven_Months_-_Intifada_Closures_and_Palestinian_Economic_Crisis___An_Assessment_117页_1011kb

Summary of "Twenty-Seven Months - Intifada, Closures and Palestinian Economic Crisis: An Assessment"

Core Content

This report, published by the World Bank in May 2003, provides an in-depth analysis of the Palestinian economic situation over the 27 months of the second intifada (2000-2002). It outlines the impact of closures and curfews on the economy, the role of donor assistance, and the need for institutional reforms and political progress to restore economic stability and development.

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Main Economic Indicators

• Human Cost: 1,972 Palestinians and 694 Israelis died, with over 20,000 Palestinians and 5,000 Israelis injured.
• Economic Decline:
  • Real GNI fell by 38% from 1999 levels.
  • Unemployment reached 37% in 2002, up from 45% in the Third Quarter of 2002.
  • Real per capita income dropped by 46% since 1999.
  • Poverty increased from 21% to 60% of the population, with 1.9 million people living in poverty.
• Trade and Investment:
  • Palestinian exports and imports contracted by about a third between 2000 and 2002.
  • Total investment fell from $1.45 billion in 1999 to $150 million in 2002, a 90% decline.
  • Physical damage from the conflict increased from $305 million to $930 million, with total damage (including wear and tear) reaching $1.7 billion.
• Fiscal Situation:
  • PA monthly revenues dropped from $91 million in late 2000 to $18 million by end-2002.
  • Donor budget support averaged $39 million per month in 2002, covering about half of PA budget outlays.
  • The PA owes private suppliers nearly $200 million in unpaid bills.

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Impact on Ordinary Palestinians

• Household Welfare: Many families have endured long periods without income, leading to asset sales, borrowing, and reduced consumption.
• Poverty: The poverty rate rose to 60%, with over 75% of the Gaza Strip population now classified as poor.
• Malnutrition: 9.3% of children in the West Bank and Gaza suffer from global acute malnutrition (GAM), with higher rates in Gaza.
• Social Impact:
  • Adolescents are particularly vulnerable to trauma and feelings of powerlessness.
  • There has been an increase in domestic violence and violence against women and children.
  • The private sector has been severely affected, with real private GDP declining by 35% and significant layoffs.

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Institutional Response

• PA Response:
  • The PA has maintained basic public services despite curfews and closures.
  • It has implemented a serious reform program aimed at reducing corruption, improving transparency, and building a modern civil service.
  • The PA employs 26% of those still working in the West Bank and Gaza and pays 40% of all domestic wages.
• Municipalities, UNRWA, and NGOs:
  • Municipalities and UNRWA have played critical roles in service delivery.
  • NGOs have contributed to social support and adaptive strategies.
• Donor Support:
  • Donors have provided about $315 per person per year since the intifada began.
  • Donor budget support was crucial in preventing fiscal collapse.
  • Donors are urged to increase support to $535 million in 2003 to meet PA needs.

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What Can Be Done?

Recommendations to the Palestinian Authority

• Formulate a clear economic plan and use it to mobilize collective efforts.
• Continue and deepen the reform process, including fiscal accountability and building a modern civil service.
• Ensure the successful implementation of the reform program to maintain domestic and international legitimacy.

Recommendations to Donors

• Increase budget support to the PA in 2003 to cover its external needs.
• Expand food aid, cash assistance, and job creation programs, especially those targeting vulnerable groups.
• Evaluate and potentially expand the ICRC voucher scheme.
• Focus on job creation programs that maximize local labor and materials use.

Recommendations to the Government of Israel

• Lift internal closures and facilitate trade to enable economic recovery.
• Resume monthly revenue transfers to the PA to restore fiscal stability.
• Reduce transaction costs and unpredictability in the Palestinian economy.

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Looking Ahead

• Economic Outlook (2003-2004):
  • If closures are lifted, GDP could surge by 21% in 2003 and poverty could fall by 15 percentage points by 2004.
  • Donor support remains essential, but political progress is the key to long-term recovery.
• Donor Financing in 2003:
  • Estimated donor commitments: $1,274 million.
  • Expected disbursements: $919 million.
  • The PA requires $535 million in external support for 2003, even with GOI transfers.
• Priorities for Aid Management:
  • Better coordination and targeting of assistance.
  • Emphasis on sustainable development and institutional capacity-building.

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Conclusion

The Palestinian economy has suffered a dramatic decline due to closures, curfews, and the intifada. While donor support has prevented total collapse, political progress and the lifting of restrictions are essential for long-term recovery. The PA must continue its reform process, and donors must increase and better coordinate their assistance. Israel's policies, particularly regarding internal closures, significantly affect the Palestinian economy and must be adjusted to allow for economic revival.