20150803-DBS_Group-Yuen_Long_dominates_near-term_project_launch_31页_1mb

报告摘要

Yuen Long Residential Market Summary (August 2015)

Core Content

The document outlines the residential market dynamics in Hong Kong, with a particular focus on the Yuen Long area. It highlights the concentration of property launches in the second half of 2015, especially around Yuen Long Station and Long Ping Station. It also provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions, including share price performance, valuation metrics, and transaction trends.

Key Projects in Yuen Long

Grand YOHO Development (Phase 1): 1,114 units, developed by SHKP. Located near Yuen Long West Rail station and YOHO Mall.
Acappella Development (Phase 1A-C): 1,027 units, developed by SHKP.
Twin Regency: 523 units, developed by SHKP.
YLTL 518: 1,129 units, developed by Cheung Kong Property.
Long Ping (North) Station Development: 912 units, developed by K.Wah and Sino.
Yuen Long Station Site: 1,870 units, 1.36msf GFA, available for tender by MTRC.

Factors Affecting Residential Demand and Supply

Real GDP Growth: Influences overall economic activity and purchasing power.
Unemployment Rate: Affects buyer confidence and demand.
3-Month HIBOR vs Prime Rate: Influences mortgage rates and affordability.
Effective Mortgage Rate: Affects affordability for private households.
Rental Yields: Reflects the return on investment for mass market projects.
Yield Spread: Indicates the difference between mortgage rates and rental yields.
Housing Supply: Shows the total number of units available for sale.

Project Launches in June 2015

Project	Location	Developer	Total Units	Units Sold	% Sold	ASP (HK$psf)
Skypark	Mong Kok	New World/URA	439	46	10%	18,300
Heya Crystal	Cheung Sha Wan	Hong Kong Housing Society	350	347	99%	14,000

Projects with Occupation Permits Issued in May 2015

Project	Location	Developer	No of Units
Heya Delight	Cheung Sha Wan	Hong Kong Housing Society	130
Mont Vert Ph 2	Tai Po	Cheung Kong Property	279

Projects with Pre-Sale Consent Granted in June 2015

Project	Developers	Location	No of Units
Corinthia By the Sea	Sino Land/K.Wah	Tseung Kwan O	536

Projects with Pre-Sale Consent Pending Approval in June 2015

Project	Developers	Location	No of Units
Marina South	COLI	Ap Lei Chau	114
53 Conduit Road	Sino Land	Mid-Levels	27
Heya Crystal	Hong Kong Housing Society	Cheung Sha Wan	350
Heya Aqua	Hong Kong Housing Society	Cheung Sha Wan	275
De Novo	URA	Kai Tak	484
The Zumurud	CK Property	Kowloon City	228
The Grampian	Hanison	Kowloon Tong	14
No.62 Begonia Road	COLI	Kowloon Tong	10
The Paseo	Rykadan Capital	Jordan	66
KIL 11227	Kerry Properties	Ho Man Tin	1,425
8 Kwun Fat Street	Emperor International	Tuen Mun	14
Double Cove Ph 4	Henderson/New World Dev	Ma On Shan	474
The Clearwater Bay	New World Dev	Sai Kung	680
TKOTL 125	Wheelock	Tsueng Kwan O	428
TKOTL 112	Wheelock	Tseung Kwan O	800
TMTL 423	Kerry Properties	Tuen Mun	1,100
YLTL 518	CK Property	Yuen Long	1,129
Grand YOHO Development Ph1	SHKP	Yuen Long	1,114
Twin Regency	SHKP	Yuen Long	523
Acappella Development Ph1A	SHKP	Yuen Long	499
Acappella Development Ph1B	SHKP	Yuen Long	362
Acappella Development Ph1C	SHKP	Yuen Long	166
YLTL 513	Sino Land/K Wah	Yuen Long	912
The Parkhill	New World Dev	Yuen Long	141
Lot 2129 in DD121	CK Property	Yuen Long	41

Share Price Performance and Valuation

Property Developers

Company	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Last Price (HK$)	12-M Target (HK$)	Recom	PE FY15 x	PE FY16 x	Jun-16 NAV (HK$)	Disc. to Jun-16 NAV (%)	Yield FY15 (%)	Yield FY16 (%)
Cheung Kong Property	1113 HK	Dec	249	64.60	81.10	Buy	15.0	13.7	101.4	(36)	2.7	3.0
Hang Lung Props	101 HK	Dec	99	22.15	25.05	Buy	17.1	16.1	38.6	(43)	3.4	3.4
Henderson Land	12 HK	Dec	169	51.20	55.25	Buy	17.9	17.1	78.9	(35)	2.1	2.1
K Wah Int'l	173 HK	Dec	12	4.27	5.47	Buy	17.8	8.4	10.9	(61)	3.5	3.5
Kerry Props	683 HK	Dec	42	28.95	34.00	Buy	13.5	11.8	75.6	(62)	2.8	2.9
Lai Sun Dev	488 HK	Jul	3	0.169	0.263	Buy	14.9	16.1	0.88	(81)	1.5	1.5
MTR Corp	66 HK	Dec	202	34.55	36.20	Hold	20.0	22.8	42.1	(18)	3.0	3.0
New World Dev	17 HK	Jun	84	9.37	11.74	Buy	12.4	11.2	19.6	(52)	4.5	4.5
Sino Land	83 HK	Jun	73	12.04	15.14	Buy	14.7	13.7	23.3	(48)	4.2	4.2
SHKP	16 HK	Jun	343	119.10	150.00	Buy	17.8	13.8	199.9	(40)	2.8	2.8
Tai Cheung	88 HK	Mar	4	6.83	8.65	Buy	7.6	12.1	19.2	(64)	4.4	4.4
Wheelock & Co.	20 HK	Dec	82	40.15	42.35	Buy	8.4	7.3	56.5	(29)	3.0	3.0
Wing Tai Properties	369 HK	Dec	6	4.78	6.05	Buy	16.2	20.3	15.1	(68)	2.8	2.8

Property Investors

Company	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Last Price (HK$)	12-M Target (HK$)	Recom	PE FY15 x	PE FY16 x	Jun-16 NAV (HK$)	Disc. to Jun-16 NAV (%)	Yield FY15 (%)	Yield FY16 (%)
Great Eagle	41 HK	Dec	18	27.00	30.50	Hold	10.7	11.0	74.4	(64)	2.7	2.7
HK Land	HKL SP	Dec	18	7.70	9.32	Buy	20.2	19.8	11.6	(34)	2.5	2.5
Hysan Dev	14 HK	Dec	35	33.20	38.15	Buy	16.0	15.8	63.6	(48)	3.8	3.9
Swire Props	1972 HK	Dec	146	24.95	30.20	Buy	20.0	19.7	40.3	(38)	2.6	2.6
Wharf	4 HK	Dec	149	49.20	53.85	Hold	12.5	11.3	89.8	(45)	4.0	4.1

REITs

REIT	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$m)	Last Price (HK$)	12-M Target (HK$)	Recom	Yield FY14A (%)	Yield FY15F (%)	Yield FY16F (%)	Price/BV (x)	Gearing Ratio (%)
Champion REIT*	2778 HK	Dec	24,763	4.30	4.68	Buy	4.7	4.3	4.8	0.53	23.1
Fortune REIT*	778 HK	Dec	15,910	8.45	9.18	Buy	4.9	5.5	5.6	0.68	30.6
Hui Xian REIT@^	87001 HK	Dec	18,959	3.54	n.a.	NR	7.3	7.7	8.1	0.66	9.2
Jinmao Investments*	6139 HK	Dec	9,500	4.75	6.20	Buy	10.1	9.5	9.8	0.89	66.0
Langham Hospitality^	1270 HK	Dec	6,729	3.31	n.a.	NR	9.0	8.6	8.7	0.63	38.4
New Century REIT^	1275 HK	Dec	2,976	3.18	n.a.	NR	10.2	n.a.	n.a.	0.90	31.0
Prosperity REIT*	808 HK	Dec	4,170	2.92	3.00	Buy	5.6	5.8	5.9	0.62	28.6
Regal REIT^	1881 HK	Dec	7,101	2.18	n.a.	NR	7.4	8.6	8.9	0.46	33.9
Spring REIT^	1426 HK	Dec	4,002	3.59	n.a.	NR	7.8	8.0	8.1	0.59	33.5
Sunlight REIT*	435 HK	Jun	6,465	3.95	4.22	Buy	5.1	5.4	5.5	0.53	23.3
The Link REIT*	823 HK	Mar	104,577	45.60	48.10	Hold	3.6	4.0	4.4	0.88	11.9

Market Trends

Primary Market Transaction Volume and Value: Highlighted in the document with relevant graphs.
Secondary Market Transaction Volume and Value: Also highlighted with graphs.
Confirmor – Overall and Over HK$7m: Graphs are provided to illustrate market sentiment.
Centa-City Leading Index: Indicates the secondary market price index.

Office Market

Office Rentals: Graph showing trends.
Office Capital Values: Graph showing trends.
Office Vacancy: Graph showing vacancy rates.
Expectations to Hire: Graph from Hudson Global Resources (HK).

Retail Market

Private Retail Rent Index: Graph showing rent trends.
Private Retail Price Index: Graph showing price trends.
Overall Retail Sales Growth: Graph showing growth.
Monthly Retail Sales Growth of Specific Sectors:
- Jewellery/Watches
- Consumer Durable Goods
- Supermarket Items
Visitor Arrivals Growth: Graph showing growth in overall and specific categories.

Key Information

HSI (Hang Seng Index): 24,636 as of 3 August 2015.
Sources: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers, Centaline Property Agency, Building Department, Lands Department.
Analysts: Jeff YAU CFA and Allen CHAN.

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